Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens
Thursday, October 26, 2017, 8:25 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Network
M&T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, Maryland
Opening Line: Baltimore -3 (-120)
Current Line: Baltimore -3
Opening Total: 37 1/2
Current Total: 37 1/2
Opening Money Line: Ravens -170 / Dolphins +150
Current Money Line: Ravens -150 / Dolphins +130
The 4-2 Miami Dolphins travel to the 3-4 Baltimore Ravens Thursday night. Miami is tied with the Buffalo Bills for second place in the AFC East, but both teams are a half game behind the New England Patriots. Baltimore is in second place in the AFC North behind the 5-2 Pittsburgh Steelers.
Baltimore leads the series 8-6 against Miami. The Ravens have won six of the last seven meetings against the Dolphins, including 38-6 last year in Baltimore. This is the fifth straight season the teams have met.
Miami is coached by Adam Gase. The Dolphins have won three straight games after a 1-2 start. Miami has a road loss at the New York Jets 20-6 and a loss to the New Orleans Saints 20-0 in London. The opening game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was postponed to week eleven because of a hurricane. Miami has road wins over the Los Angeles Chargers 19-17 and Atlanta Falcons 20-17, plus home wins over the Tennessee Titans 16-10 and Jets 31-28 last week. The Dolphins trailed 28-14 against the Jets going into the fourth, but scored 17 straight points to win. Miami was a three point favorite in that game and the total was 40. Miami is 3-2-1 ATS and the total is 1-5 this season.
Baltimore is coached by John Harbaugh. The Ravens have road wins at the Cincinnati Bengals 20-0 and Oakland Raiders 30-17 and a home win over the Cleveland Browns 24-10. Baltimore lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars 44-7 in London. The Ravens have home losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers 26-9 and Chicago Bears 27-24 in overtime, plus a road loss to the Minnesota Vikings 24-16 last week. Baltimore was a 5 point underdog against Minnesota and the total was 37.5. The Ravens are 3-4 ATS and the total is 4-3 this season.
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Miami is being outscored 19-15 this season. Miami is #31 in scoring and #7 in points allowed. The Dolphins average 262 yards per game on offense including 180 passing and 82 rushing yards. The Dolphins are #29 or worse in all three categories. On defense, Miami is allowing 308 yards per game including 226 passing and 82 rushing yards. The Dolphins are #10 in total defense and #5 against the run. Miami is 24/81 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 25/72. The Dolphins have forced 15 sacks and allowed 13 this season. Miami is -2 in turnovers this season.
Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill is out for the season with a torn ACL. The Dolphins signed the retired Jay Cutler after the injury in the pre-season. He is out Thursday with broken ribs, but he didn’t really seem engaged even before the injury. Cutler has completed 62.8% of his passes for 995 yards with 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and also has 7 carries for 20 yards. He has been sacked 12 times. Matt Moore replaced Cutler after the injury. He has thrown for 188 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception. David Fales will be the back-up until Cutler comes back.
Running back Jay Ajayi has 125 carries for 442 yards, plus 10 catches for 49 yards. He is probable with a knee injury. Damien Williams has 12 carries for 32 yards, plus 7 catches for 51 yards. The Dolphins do not have rushing touchdown this season.
Receiver Jarvis Landry has 45 catches for 365 yards and 3 touchdowns. Kenny Stills has 20 catches for 248 yards and 4 touchdowns. DeVante Parker has 19 catches for 236 yards and a touchdown. He is questionable with an ankle injury. Tight end Julius Thomas has 15 catches for 166 yards and is probable with a knee injury. Seven offensive players and six offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.
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Baltimore is being outscored 21-19 this season. Baltimore is #23 in scoring. The Ravens average 278 total yards including 157 passing and 120 rushing yards. Baltimore is last in passing and #31 in total offense, but the rush offense is #12. On defense, Baltimore is allowing 335 yards per game including 189 passing and 145 rushing yards. The Ravens are #last in rush defense and 37 in pass defense. The Ravens are 36/102 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 37/102. Baltimore has forced 16 sacks and allowed 17 this season. Baltimore is +3 in turnovers. The Ravens have two special teams and a defensive touchdown.
Quarterback Joe Flacco has completed 63.8% of his passes for 1,189 yards with 5 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and has been sacked 17 times. Ryan Mallett has thrown for 36 yards with a touchdown.
Running back Alex Collins has 62 carries for 365 yards. Javorius Allen has 82 carries for 301 yards and a touchdown, along with 31 catches for 143 yards and a touchdown. Terrance West has 39 carries for 138 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 2 catches. Danny Woodhead is out until at least week 11 with a hamstring injury. Kenneth Dixon is out for the season with a knee injury.
Receiver Mike Wallace has 16 catches for 248 yards and a touchdown. He is questionable with a concussion. Tight end Benjamin Watson has 29 catches for 214 yards and a touchdown. He is questionable with a knee injury. Receiver Jeremy Maclin has 16 catches for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is questionable with a shoulder injury. Nick Boyle has 14 catches for 109 yards. Tight end Maxx Williams is out with an ankle injury. Tight ends Darren Waller and Crockett Gilmore are both out for the season. Four other receivers are listed as questionable or out. Thirteen defensive players and four offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.
Miami is 12-3 ATS in week eight, 4-1-1 in October, 6-2 after rushing for less than 90 yards, 9-4-1 after for gaining more than 350 yards, 8-18 after failing to cover, 3-8 after scoring more than 30 points, and 2-9 on fieldturf. The road team is 5-2 ATS in this series and the underdog is 7-3 ATS.
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS after rushing for less than 90 yards, 7-2 after passing for less than 150 yards, 7-19-2 in October, 5-15-2 after a straight up loss, 2-6 on fieldturf, 1-4 after gaining less than 250 yards, and overall, and 0-4 against teams with winning road records. The Ravens have covered the last seven games against the Dolphins.
These are two of the worst offenses in football. This should be a low scoring game. Both teams have injuries at key positions, but the top three receivers for Baltimore are questionable. I think the Dolphins pull off the mild road upset.
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