Tip off: 7:30 PM EST, Thursday, Nov 8
Point Spread: FLAST -13.5
Total: 51.5
M/L: FLAST -550, VATC +450
The Florida State Seminoles are coming off a bye week, and their goal for the season now hinges on winning the ACC. With the horrifying loss to NC State, they shot any chances that they had at a BCS championship, which still stings Seminoles fans who thought their team had the talent and schedule necessary to win this year’s championship.
NC State holds the tiebreaker over Florida State, but the Wolfpack has dropped two straight and have almost removed themselves from the ACC equation.
The Seminoles are still the only team in the nation ranked in the top-10 in both offense and defense, and since the loss to NC State, they’ve won by an average score of 44-11. E.J. Manuel at one point was a Heisman candidate, but the loss the Seminoles endured may have removed him from that conversation as well.
Manuel has a pass efficiency rating of 174.0, which ranks second in the nation, and while he won’t win the Heisman, he could and should win ACC player of the year. He’s completed 69.1 percent of his passes since the loss to the Wolfpack, and his accuracy will play a big role in the this contest, though college football oddsmakers set the line 13.5 points in favor of the Seminoles.
Virginia Tech is now 4-5 on the season and 2-3 in the ACC, and they must win at least two of their final three games to secure their 19th consecutive bowl game. However, the Hokies have lost four of their last five, which puts that goal in danger. They lost 30-12 to Miami last Thursday, which made it impossible for the Hokies to salvage the season with at least 10 win. The loss was marked by failed opportunities in the red zone, as the Hokies had more first downs, better third down efficiency, and also more total yards.
“We’ve just got to make plays,” Hokies coach Frank Beamer resigned himself.
Can the Hokies make plays against a tough Seminoles defense if they couldn’t against the Hurricanes? Doubtful. It leads me to believe that the 13.5 point spread is a bit conservative, as the Seminoles have the defense to shut down Tech, and the offense to continue to put up their usual numbers (44.8 points per game).
Florida State Betting Trends:
Seminoles are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs teams with losing home records, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after accumulating 450+ total yards previous game, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 after accumulating 280+ passing yards, 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 after an SU win of 20+, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 following an SU win.
Virginia Tech Betting Trends:
Hokies are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 in NOV, 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 after scoring less than 20 previous game, 18-8 ATS in their last 26 on THURS, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 after accumulating more than 200 rushing yards previous game, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
