#14 Texas Longhorns at Ole Miss Rebels
Saturday, September 15, 2012, 9:15 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium – Oxford, Mississippi
Opening Line: Texas -12
Current Line: Texas -10 1/2
Opening Total: 49
Current Total: 51
Opening Money Line: Texas -375 / Ole Miss +315
Current Money Line: Texas -370 / Ole Miss +310

The Texas Longhorns and Ole Miss Rebels meet for the first time since the 1966 Bluebonnet Bowl, and the first time ever in Oxford. Texas leads the series 5-1. The only win for the Rebels came in the 1958 Sugar Bowl.

The #12 Texas Longhorns are coached by Mack Brown. Texas is 2-0 after blowout wins at home over Mountain West teams Wyoming 37-17 and New Mexico 45-0. The Longhorns are averaging 433.5 yards per game, including 220.5 passing yards, and 213 rushing yards. Texas is giving up 293 yards per game, including 155.5 passing yards and 137.5 rushing yards. The Longhorns are outscoring opponents 41-8.5 this season. Texas is 1-1 ATS and both games have gone under the total this season.

Texas was a 39.5 point favorite at home last week against New Mexico, and the total was 53.5. Texas was never threatened in the game and they won easily 45-0 to cover the huge number.

The Longhorns had 431 total yards including 285 passing yards. New Mexico only had 35 passing yards, but they did rush for 206 yards. The Lobos had 8 penalties for 50 yards and 2 turnovers. Texas only had 3 penalties and no turnovers.

Texas quarterback David Ash has completed 36 of 49 passes (73.5%) this season for 377 yards, with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions, along with 9 carries for 39 yards and a 49 yard touchdown run. Case McCoy threw a touchdown pass in garbage time of the New Mexico blowout. McCoy and Ash platooned last year, but Ash is the full time starter this year. Running back Joe Bergeron has 26 carries for 159 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 3 catches for 30 yards. Malcolm Brown has 16 catches, 110 yards, and a touchdown, plus 4 catches for 38 yards. D.J. Monroe only has 7 carries, but two of them went for rushing touchdowns. Receiver Jaxon Shipley has 9 catches for 75 yards and a touchdown.  Mike Davis has 7 catches for 70 yards with a touchdown. No other Longhorn receiver has more than 4 catches. Kicker Anthony Fera is questionable with a groin injury. Nick Jordan has missed 3 of the 5 field goals he has attempted this season and also missed an extra point. Nick Rose has made all 3 attempted extra points this season, and could get a chance to try some field goals if Fera is out and Jordan continues to struggle.

Ole Miss is 2-0 this season under first year coach Hugh Freeze, who came over from Arkansas St. The Rebels have wins over Central Arkansas 49-27 and UTEP 28-10, both at home. Ole Miss is averaging 551.5 yards per game on offense this season, including 269 passing yards and 282.5 rushing yards. The Rebels are in the top 10 nationally in both total offense and rushing. Mississippi is allowing 329 yards per game including 260.5 passing yards and 68.5 rushing yards per game. The Rebels are outscoring opponents 38.5-18.5 this season. Ole Miss is 2-0 ATS and the total is 0-1 this season.

The Rebels were 8.5 point favorites at home last week against UTEP, and the total was 52.5. Ole Miss jumped out to a 21-0 lead at halftime. UTEP scored 10 points in the third quarter to pull within 21-10, but would come no closer. The Rebels scored early in the fourth to make the final 28-10.

Despite racking up 538 total yards including 330 rushing yards, Ole Miss played a sloppy game with 3 lost fumbles and 2 missed field goals. Quarterback Bo Wallace passed for 174 yards with 3 touchdowns, along with 11 carries for 53 yards and a touchdown. Running back Jeff Scott had 12 carries for 111 yards. UTEP had 311 total yards including 37 rushing yards. The Miners had 8 penalties for 70 yards, and one turnover.

Wallace has completed 35 passes in 46 attempts (76.1%) for 438 yards with 5 touchdowns and an interception, along with 24 carries, 135 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Randall Mackey has 26 carries for 116 yards, along with 4 catches for 20 yards. Donte Moncrief has 11 catches for 176 yards with 2 touchdowns. Korvic Neat has 10 catches for 94 yards.

Texas is 5-2 ATS in non-conference games, 7-15 against teams with winning records, 5-11 after a straight up win, 4-9 after scoring more than 40 points, 2-5 after allowing more than 200 rushing yards, 3-9 after allowing less than 170 passing yards, 2-8 after a cover, and after passing for more than 280 yards, and 1-4 on fieldturf.

Ole Miss is 13-3 ATS in non-conference games, 12-26 in September, 4-9 on fieldturf, 2-5 overall, 1-5 after a cover, after rushing for more than 200 yards, and after accumulating more than 450 total yards, 1-6 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards, and against teams with winning records, and 0-4 after allowing less than 20 points.

Ole Miss has already equaled their win total from last year, but they haven’t really played anyone yet. Neither has Texas. This will be the first true test for both teams. The Longhorns gave up a ton of rushing yards to New Mexico, and could do the same to Ole Miss who is averaging over 200 rushing yards per game. If the Rebels can avoid turning the ball over, they can keep this close. it won’t be easy, because Texas has one of the best defenses in the country. I think Texas survives a tough road test.

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