North Carolina Tarheels at Duke Blue Devils, Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC
Wednesday, February 9, 2011, 9:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Duke – 9 1/2
Current Line: Duke -10
Opening Total: 153 1/2
Current Total: 156
Money Line: Duke -600 / UNC +450
Last year when these two long time arch-rivals met, Duke was one of the elite teams in the country and North Carolina was having a down year by the program’s illustrious standards. The Tarheels still made it to the championship game of the post-season NIT, while Duke won the National championship. The last time these two teams played in the regular season finale last year Duke humiliated North Carolina 82-50. Expect this game to be a lot closer than that. After starting off the season ranked #9 in the pre-season poll, North Carolina got off to a disappointing 4-3 start. However, the Tarheels turned it around and have gone 13-2 since then for a 17-5 overall record and 7-1 in the ACC. They have climbed back into the top 25, as they are #20 in the AP and #21 in the ESPN coaches’ poll. The Tarheels have losses to Minnesota, Vanderbilt, Illinois, Texas, and Georgia Tech. They have quality wins over Charleston, Kentucky, Long Beach St, Rutgers, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Clemson, NC State, Boston College, and Florida St. Since a mystifying 20 point loss at Georgia Tech, North Carolina has won 5 straight, including an 89-69 romp over Florida St at home Sunday. North Carolina has won their last 3 by at least 20 points. After the Georgia Tech loss, Carolina coach Roy Williams benched point guard Larry Drew II in favor of Kendall Marshall. Drew left the program last Friday two days before the Florida St game.
Duke meanwhile was the #1 team in the pre-season poll. They won their first 15 games before they lost at Florida St 66-61. Duke also has a loss at St. John’s a couple of weeks ago 93-78. Overall, Duke is 21-2 and 8-1 in the ACC. The Blue Devils are ranked #5 in both polls. Duke has wins over Princeton, Marquette, Kansas St, Oregon, Michigan St, Butler, Miami, Maryland twice, Virginia, NC State twice, Wake Forest, and Boston College. Duke has won 32 straight at home.
Carolina leads the overall series 130-99. Duke won both games last year but UNC had won 6 out of 7 before that. Duke is 3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and 3 of those 4 have gone under as well. North Carolina is 15-27 ATS versus conference opponents the last 3 seasons. At least one of these teams has been ranked in the top 25 in every meeting between the two since 1960. That is 146 straight games including this one.
Besides the whole Drew II situation, North Carolina has no other injuries. Guard Justin Watts returned against Florida St after missing 3 games with an ankle injury. Forward Tyler Zeller is the leading scorer for the Tarheels with 14.1 points a game. He also averages 6.9 rebounds and 1.2 blocks a game. Forward Harrison Barnes averages 13.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.4 assists a game. Forward John Henson leads the team in rebounds with 8.5 a game and blocks with 3 a game. He also averages 11.1 points a game. Dexter Strickland leads the team in steals with 1.4 a game. Point Guard Kendall Marshall leads the team in assists with 5 a game. UNC is outscoring opponents 79-68. The Tarheels are shooting 46.5% from the field and 34.6% from 3-point range. Tarheel opponents are shooting 40.3% from the field. The Tarheels struggle from the free throw line converting only 65.2% from the line. North Carolina averages 42.1 rebounds a game and has a rebounding margin of +6.0. The lead the nation in rebounding. They average 16.1 assists and 13.8 turnovers a game. They force 15.3 turnovers a game on defense. Carolina averages 6.6 steals and 5.4 blocks a game.
Duke has been playing without guard Kyrie Irving since early December who is out with a foot injury. Duke has three other players besides Irving who are averaging double digit scoring. Senior guard Nolan Smith is averaging 21 points to lead the team, 4.8 rebounds, 5.6 assists to lead the team, and 1.5 steals a game to lead the team. Forward Kyle Singler is averaging 18 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.1 steals a game. Guard Andre Dawkins, averages 10 points and 2.2 rebounds a game. Mason Plumlee leads the team in rebounds with 8.8 a game and blocks with 1.8 a game. Duke is outscoring opponents 85-65 on the season. The Blue Devils are shooting 48.5% from the field and 40.1% from 3-point range. Duke opponents are shooting 40.4% from the field. Duke makes 74.1% of their free throws. The Blue Devils average 36.7 rebounds a game and have a rebounding margin of +3.7. The Devils average 14.7 assists and 11.6 turnovers a game. Duke forces 15.7 turnovers a game on defense. Duke averages 4.4 blocks and 8.1 steals a game.
Carolina coach Roy Williams said earlier this week, that the key to beating Duke is making lots of baskets. “You can’t beat Duke by scoring 50 or 60 points, because they will score so much more than that. We have to make a lot of baskets, whether those are 3-pointers, dunks, or jump shots.”, said Williams on the Dan Patrick radio show this morning. North Carolina has been playing some of its best basketball of the season recently after the Georgia Tech loss. If the Tarheels who played so well against Florida St show up, they can keep it close against Duke and maybe even pull off the upset.
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