The Tampa Bay Bucs haven’t ventured into the postseason in six straight seasons. The team sent coach Jon Gruden packing in 2009, and since that point the Bucs have been unable to find a suitable replacement.

Lovie Smith is the next attempt at the head coaching swing, and he at least brings experience to the table. He tallied an 84-66 record in his nine years as a coach with the Chicago Bears, and the team won three NFC North titles under him. Returning this Tampa Bay team to relevance will still be a very heady task for Smith.

Odds to win Superbowl: 66/1
Odds to win NFC: 33/1
Odds to win NFC South: +550

Odds courtesy of Bovada

The Bucs finished 4-12 last season, and it won’t take much of an improvement to best a team that won just one quarter of its games last year. Smith’s preference is to keep the ball on the ground, and after he sets it up, he opens the field up with his QBs. Jeff Tedford will be a great offensive coordinator after spending 20 years as a quarterback coach. He’s developed Aaron Rodgers, Trent Dilfer and David Carr in the past. Josh McCown will be his latest “project,” if you can call a 35-year-old a project. But the fact that you almost can illustrates the plight of this team offensively.

McCown is in just his second of 12 seasons starting as the QB on opening day. His 1:1 TD/INT ratio during those two seasons illustrates just how low his ceiling is. He had a 109.0 passing rating in the five starts he had with the Bears, but that small sample size isn’t really enough to justify much hope in the QB. Mike Glennon is a textbook backup, but could easily work his way into the starting role if McCown finds a way to equal his past inaccuracy with passes.

Doug Martin made the Pro Bowl in his rookie season, but the third-year running back will look to bounce back after a rough year last season. He averaged just 3.6 yards per carry before he suffered a season ending shoulder injury.

Martin drew high praise his rookie season, and there’s really no reason he can’t return to that high caliber of play. He’s also a capable receiver out of the backfield, which will help the Bucs keep teams guessing. Smith will allow others chance to carry the football, but the Bucs need it in Martin’s clutches as often as possible.

Vincent Jackson has to produce at the level the team expected when they shelled out $55 M over five seasons to the WR. Jackson has been the top receiver the last two years, and now he’ll also serve as a mentor for Mike Evans. Evans is a 6’5” 231 pound WR who should be good in the red zone and help the Bucs create mismatches on the field. After Jackson and Evans, the talent wanes in the backups, so it’s imperative that both stay healthy.

The defense will go back to the zone-based defense that coaching great Tony Dungy used when serving as the Bucs’ LB coach. Coordinator Leslie Frazier will allow Smith plenty of influence in his schemes and the 4-3 will be used. The Bucs will drop the LBs and DBs back into coverage a good bit.

The DL features only one outstanding performer in Gerald McCoy. The rest of the DL is filled with disappointments, and it is a rather mediocre group overall. Fourth round pick William Gholston has the size to make a difference at 6’6” 281, and he’s quick. He is going to have to earn his time this season, but represents a hope for the DL in the near future.

The LBs feature several impact players including Mason Foster and Devonte David. David has earned high praise and is bound to make a Pro Bowl either this season or next. Foster is a great run stopper and tackler.

The secondary is also pretty solid for the Bucs. It doesn’t feature great CBs, but it doesn’t need to given the scheme. Alterraun Verner is a good playmaker on the ball, despite not having great athleticism. Johnathan Banks will be the other CB and he’s a smart one much like Verner. At safety, the Bucs have two real nice starters in Mark Barron and Dashon Goldson. Goldson received almost $500k in fines last season for illegal hits, so he’ll need to control that power some.

The special teams are mediocre. Connor Barth missed last season with a torn Achilles, but he earned a franchise tag in 2012, so he needs to prove he can be worth it. Michael Koenen is a superb kickoff and punt returner and also was franchise tagged by the Falcons in 2009. The return game is where the Bucs struggle. Eric Page may need to be replaced if he produces like last season.

The Bucs made a good decision in hiring Smith, but even he can’t turn this team around overnight…McCown is not a great quarterback, and the idea of him replicating a five-game stretch in his career over an entire season is nearly laughable, for everyone except the most optimistic Tampa fans. The Bucs have a chance to come out of the gates hot, but there’s no way this team can do more than win half of its games, and even that is a stretch as evidenced by Bovada’s long-shot odds for all Bucs futures betting.