NFL Betting Season Win TotalsThis is a very interesting time when it comes to NFL win totals betting. They have been posted for a while now, so the initial action has bet out any obvious errors, but the public hasn’t yet paid a lot of attention to them. That likely means that the futures are somewhat more accurate now than they will be before the fans jump on the public teams. Because of that, looking at the odds right now shows us some very interesting trends and opinions. Based on the line movement and the prices available there are hints of some strong and interesting opinions held by those who have made bets so far. Here are 11 win totals that have seemed to have one-sided action so far. In each case the one-sided action can be a clue that the total is likely to change as the season nears, and it gives us something to think about when it comes to the teams (odds are form Bodog):

Continue reading “NFL Regular Season Win Totals Betting: A Look at the Early Moves”

We talked about turnover differential in our last article in handicapping season win totals.  The premise is that luck tends to inflate and deflate a teams win over a course of a season.  Normally teams that had positive turnover differential one season tend to not be so lucky the next time around and vice versa.  We are looking to buck that trend again this season.  Once again here is that turnover table from last year.

Continue reading “NFL Betting: Regular Season Win Total Picks”

Teams are in the process of preparing for training camp and rosters are shaping up. Nothing is set in stone yet, and injuries in camp can still change the look of a team for next season. However, we now have a good idea of what the teams will look like. On top of that, it is never too early to look at the Super Bowl futures, as there is some value to be found for the early bird.

Continue reading “Super Bowl XLV Future Odds”

This whole Zydrunas Ilgauskas situation, now that it has officially come to pass, make me want to shower. It’s slimy. Just one day after he became eligible to rejoin the Cavs he has a new deal in place for the rest of the year. He joins Antawn Jamison – the guy that he was traded for. The only real cost to the Cavs in this whole deal was that they had to live without Ilgauskas for 30 days, but that’s hardly a big deal for the team because they were already extremely secure in a playoff spot. They could have used a backup center as it turned out, but they still went 16-4 without him, and now they have a rested veteran to join them for the playoffs, and they get him at a very low cost. This absolutely should not be allowed in the NBA. It’s a total joke.

Continue reading “Big Z and Bad D”

1. I don’t think that we should read too much into how the Saints won today. It wasn’t pretty, and it probably shouldn’t have happened, but there was a lot to take from that. First, Washington was the best passing defense in the league coming into the game but the Saints managed 419 passing yards against them, and they made the winning TD look as easy as it can possibly look. Next, the Redskins were at home and were fired up by trying to save their season and all that so it made sense that they were stout. Finally, the Saints were missing three cornerbacks , so I’m not concerned by their ability to stop Jason Campbell. The Saints almost lost to a bad team, but they found a way to get the win in the end, and that’s all that matters.

Continue reading “6+1 Quick Sunday Observations”

1. I still have long term concerns about how good the Favre experiment will look in December, but one thing seems certain now – this team is only undefeated because they signed him. Or at least that seems reasonable. It’s hard to imagine that Rosenfels or Jackson would have been able to lead that comeback in the same way, or could have thrown that pass to win as time expired. I don’t see this team doing any real damage in the playoffs. I don’t even now for sure what the Vikings really have to offer, and likely won’t know until they play Baltimore in week six.

Continue reading “Ten Things I Learned From The NFL This Weekend”

1. Brett Favre has had a personality transplant. For the second straight game he played reasonably selfless team football, and it is working for him. He didn’t take any of the stupid risks that we have gotten used to, he settled for smaller plays that would have once driven him crazy, and he was stunningly efficient. If he can keep this up and not trip over his ego then he could really do something this year. I’m not betting on it, though – he can’t keep things under control for that long.

Continue reading “What I Learned Sunday”

In the first section of this two-part blog on new NFL coaches, I considered five teams’ chances of making the post-season with a new head coach at the helm. Those five, the Indianapolis Colts, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks, I concluded all had the opportunity to earn a shot at the Super Bowl. The final six, I believe, have either less of a chance or little to none of securing a post-season berth. Here they are.

Continue reading “Part Two of the NFL and the Enigmatic 11”

The last couple of years I have touted the Niners heavily at this time of year. That has only partly been a good thing. Two years ago I felt like a genius as they went 6-3 ATS down the stretch and looked like a real team on the rise. They rewarded my faith last year by going 5-11 ATS and looking like a team that could only be improved by folding. I’m too smart to fall for this team again, but I can’t help myself completely, so I will still pay close attention to this team I wish I didn’t like. Because of that, I am particularly intrigued by the ascension of J.T. O’Sullivan, the game one starter for the team.

Continue reading “J.T. O’Sullivan – A Closer Look”

I don’t know about you, but I am itching for the football season to get here. Aching, really. NFL training camps get under way right away, so America’s favorite sport has been on my mind a lot lately. We’ll obviously spend a lot of time talking about the league in the weeks and months to come, but before we get into any specifics I just wanted to reflect on some of the general thoughts that are bouncing through my mind at this point.

Jacksonville
– I like this team. A lot. Their division is a bit softer than it has been. Their offense is solid. Their defense is significantly upgraded. Every year there are a couple of teams that I either make or lose a fortune on. I strongly suspect that Jacksonville is one of those teams. They aren’t going to surprise anyone, and the public is going to be aware of them, but I still thin that they will play well enough to make some money.

Continue reading “Collecting My NFL Thoughts”

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