The ending of the Pittsburgh – San Diego game has all sorts of bettors crying foul. The total was 40.5, so the under was secure as the score was 11-10 with seconds left. What wasn’t determined, though, was the spread. Pittsburgh was favored by 4.5, and about two-thirds of the money was bet on them. Needless to say, the sportsbooks would have much preferred a San Diego cover. Hence the conspiracy theories.
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There is one team left in the NFL that has a shot at reaching hallowed heights. It is almost impossible to be perfect in the tough, unpredictable, parity-filled league. But one team has the schedule, the talent, the coaching, the management, and that certain je ne sais quoi to go all the way. I’m talking, of course, about the Detroit Lions. Perfect futility is perhaps tougher to achieve than perfect success, but if any team can pull it off it is the Lions. And if they did I think it would be an even bigger accomplishment than what New England did last year.
I’m not going to offer a pick or any specific analysis about tonight’s huge NFL game – that’s not what I do here. This is a very interesting game, though, so I do want to take a closer look at it. Here are five different elements to this game that I will be watching closely, and which have factored significantly into my handicapping of the game:
Worst NFL Game of the Week – The Monday night game is certainly not going to be a gem – neither Cleveland nor Buffalo are in a particularly good place right now. It’s gets worse, though. Late Sunday afternoon the Niners will play in St. Louis. Two struggling offenses with all sorts of troubles. Ugly, ugly, ugly. Insomniacs rejoice – the cure has been found.
Best NFL Game of the Week – It should be Tennessee at Jacksonville, San Diego at Pittsburgh, or Dallas at Washington, but each of those games features one deeply flawed team that robs the game of some potential. The Jets at New England is a good old fashioned showdown for the division lead. It’s not all it could be, but it should still be compelling. My choice, though, is an unexpected one – Baltimore at the Giants. The Ravens are red hot, and the Giants are probably the best team in the league. It should be a battle of wills.
Game With Teams With The Most To Prove – Cleveland and Buffalo. The Bills need to end their ugly, ugly slide that threatens to rob them of the promise their early season showed. Cleveland lost ugly yet again on Thursday, and they desperately need to do something to get things off to a strong start in the Quinn era.
1. The Big Ten got lucky. Penn State put up a lousy effort and lost to a team that they never should have lost to. That’s a good thing. I love the Big Ten, but it has been a horrible year for my conference. By losing, Penn State has avoided a third straight ass-kicking for the conference in the national championship game. That will allow the conference to rebuild and strengthen with slightly less scrutiny than they would if they got crushed. The conference will rebuild. There are things to build on – Terrelle Pryor is finding his way, and two of the top three runners in the country are in the conference.
Worst NFL Game of the Week – This one is a no-brainer – it’s Jacksonville at Detroit. The Jaguars just lost to the freaking Bengals, and the Lions are as pathetic as a team can be. One of these teams is going to score more points, but neither of these teams are going to be winners. This is football at its worst.
Best NFL Game of the Week – There are several to choose from. Buffalo at New England is a huge battle for divisional supremacy. Indianapolis at Pittsburgh could be good if the Colts can manage to show up two weeks in a row. The Giants at Philadelphia is another big one from a divisional perspective. My choice, though, is Tennessee at Chicago. The Bears are much better, and more fun to watch, than most people thought. Tennessee just keeps finding ways to win. It should be fascinating.
Game With Teams With The Most To Prove – This one would be Green Bay at Minnesota. Both teams are underachieving, and both need to win to be competitive in a wide open division. They both have strengths, but both need to overcome some consistent problems if they still want to be standing eight weeks from now.
Oddest Line – Given what happened to the teams last year – one team made the playoffs as a division winner yet again, and the other won one game – how odd is it to see the Dolphins favored by 9.5 over the Seahawks? It’s a reasonably sound line, but it shows just how quickly things can change in this league.
Best College Game – For once this one doesn’t feature Texas, but it is still from the incedibly entertaining Big 12. Oklahoma State and Texas Tech – which upstart will survive? Using some basic algebra, the Red raiders have a slight edge – they beat Texas and Oklahoma State, playing their best, didn’t. Plus Texas tech is at home. THe game is as close as one can be – the three point spread is entirely explained by the home field. This could be yet another classic from the conference.
Filling Me With Dread – Michigan plays Minnesota this week. It’s in Minnesota. My Wolverines will lose badly. I’m resigned to the inevitable.
Four Interesting Games Between Unranked Teams – Louisville (+6.5) at Pittsburgh. The Panthers can play when they want to, and they can disappoint with regularity, too. It will be interesting to see which team shows up with the conference title in their grasp. Wyoming (+25) at Tennessee. How will the Vols play in their first game with a lame duck coach? Under normal circumstances they would win in a walk, so anything less than that indicates problems. Stanford (+13) at Oregon. The Cardinal were ridiculously dominant against Washington State last week. Some of that can be explained by how awful the Cougars are, but some comes dow to a promising team starting to find their stride. This game will be a good measure of how far Stanford has progressed. NC State (+4.5) at Duke. College basketball is just around the corner, but until it arrives we can make due with this game between basketball schools. Beyond that, the interest here is to see whether Duke can do the impossible and become bowl eligible.
There’s a lot to keep in mind as we head into a big weekend of college and NFL action:
The Bills will be without three starters. The biggest loss in wide receiver Josh Reed. I’m kind of excited by his injury, though. I like him just fine, but I’m very interested to see James Hardy get the chance to see more action. This is a rookie I really like.
Worst NFL Game of the Week – There are obvious reasons to look towards the Lions at the Bears. My favorite Lions stat – all but one opposing quarterback has set a career high for quarterback rating. Ouch. That one won’t be as bad, though, as Jacksonville at Cincinnati. Jacksonville is disappointing and full of problems. Cincinnati is so bad that T.J. Houshmanzadeh talked publicly about the possibility of a winless season. He guaranteed it wouldn’t happen, but still – If he is publicly addressing the possibility of imperfection then things are really bleak.
Best NFL Game of the Week – The Patriots at Indianapolis should be a lock for this honor, but there are too many issues on both sides to give it to them. I did like, though, how Bill Belichick talked trash about the Colts. Green Bay at Tennessee could be a good one, as pretty much every game with an undefeated team is this late in the season. Dallas at the Giants is a good old fashioned divisional grudge match. My choice, though, is the MNF tilt between Pittsburgh and Washington. These are two tough, well coached teams that will take this one to the trenches. It won’t be explosive or flashy, but it should be good fun for those of us who like hard-played football.
Worst NFL Game of the Week – There are two solid possibilities here. Seattle plays at San Francisco. The Seahawks are terrible, and they seem to be in a spiral. The Niners are almost as bad, though there may be a bit of a boost thanks to the new coach. It certainly helped the Rams. Instead of that one I will go with one that is almost certain to stink – Cincinnati at Houston. The Bengals are awful, and Houston, though they have potential, have been inconsistent. The Texans are favored by 10, which is a sign of just how bleak things are in Cincinnati.
Another week of football. That means another week of lessons learned. I’m on vacation in California leading up to the Breeders’ Cup, so the biggest lesson I learned today is that Joshua Tree is a really, really cool place. Crossroads Cafe – best bacon cheeseburger in the state. I haven’t tasted them all (though I would love to), but I am still confident of the claim. Despite the trekking through the desert and the eating of burgers, I did manage to fit some football time in, too. Here’s what sticks out:
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