Three big personnel moves occurred in the NFL yesterday, and each of them is worth a discussion:
Ronnie Brown – The Dolphins’ impressive but fragile running back has been put on the IR, and that means he’s out for the season. This time it his right foot that is the problem. Back in 2007 it was his right leg. Maybe he should just amputate that leg and start over again. Needless to say, this is a big blow for an already fragile team. Only three teams have run better than the Dolphins this year, while only two teams have passed worse. Add in Brown’s impact as one of the only players in the league who can effectively run a wildcat and you have a big hole. They aren’t totally without hope – they still have Ricky Williams and he has looked good this year. Williams is a far more straight ahead, less versatile back than Brown is, though, and it’s doubtful that Williams will be able to lead a similarly effective running attack – if he can even stay healthy for the rest of the season.
Ryan Fitzgerald – Perry Fewell needed to make an impact quickly as the new head coach of the Bills, and he found the easiest way to do it – he changed his quarterback. The ineffective Trent Edwards has been benched in favor of the ineffective Ryan Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald has had significant play in three games so far this year, and the team has earned two of their three wins in that time. He has thrown twice as many touchdowns as interceptions, and has completed less than half his passes, so it’s not a perfect solution. The Bills have been a truly terrible passing team this year, though, so it won’t hurt. None of it gives me any reason to even consider backing the Bills now or into the future.
Bruce Gradkowski – It took far too long, but the Raiders have finally come to their senses. They have benched JaMarcus Russell and given Gradkowski the reins. It’s not just a fleeting thing, either – coach Cable says that Gradkowski will be given a real chance to settle in and play. Gradkowski is not a great QB and he is in a brutal situation, so this isn’t going to make a significant change for the team. It still was the only thing to do. Russell has been absolutely terrible, and he is making absolutely no progress while he is playing. He probably won’t make any progress when he isn’t playing, either, but at least he won’t be making more truly terrible plays and crushing his final shreds of confidence and self respect. I can’t imagine that the team will be anything other than relieved by the change – it might even give them a boost. The good news is that Gradkowski barely has to do anything to be just as good as Russell.
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1. How in the world does anyone lose to Washington right now? Denver should be ashamed. It’s a sign of just how good Kyle Orton has been this year – the team self-destructed when he was hurt and the terrible Chris Simms had to take over.
1. There isn’t a game on the schedule in which the two teams both need to win more than the Washington – Atlanta game. The Redskins need to stop the bleeding and get the focus off of what a circus their team has become. The Falcons need to stop the bleeding after their tremendous early promise was derailed bytwo losses in a row. 5-3 isn’t a bad place to be, but 4-4 would be a disaster.
1. Will Denver ever lose? If they are going to do it then this is a good place for it to happen – in Baltimore. The Ravens have been impressive in a lot of ways despite their 3-3 record. Really a few breaks either way and these teams could easily have the opposite records. I have a feeling that whichever team wins this one will really have proven something in the process.
Continue reading “12 Questions That Will Be Answered Before Today Is Over”
Yesterday I touched on how uneven and uninspiring so many teams have been in the NFL has been this year. It’s really striking how large the gap is between the good teams and the not-so-good ones – bigger than usual, I think. As I was thinking about that earlier I was particularly struck by the sad state of quarterbacking in the league. There are always some QB problems, but I’m not sure that there is also this many teams in such a hopeless situation. Here’s a look at the worst offenders:
So, when did the NFL become less competitive than non-conference college football? Six of the 12 games played yesterday were decided by at least four touchdowns. That’s preposterous. It makes for ridiculously uncompetitive action, and therefore mostly uninteresting football. The good news, I guess, is that at least we aren’t taking bets on the games – books are getting absolutely killed by favorites covering monster spreads like this. The favorites were 8-3-1 ATS this week, and the three biggest spreads, usually the public money magnets that the books feast on, all covered. Ouch. The disparity in the league this year is amazing. For the first time ever we have three undefeated teams through seven weeks of the season. On the flip side, we have three teams that could quite conceivably not win a game, and for a couple more it seems impossible to believe that they have already won one (or more). I thought salary caps were supposed to bring competitive balance?
It’s early in the first set of Sunday games , and a lot of thoughts are running through my mind already:
1. What is the point of this farce in London? The field isn’t ideal, the crowd sounds like they are at a funeral, the broadcast doesn’t look or sound quite right, and the Bucs are pretty much the worst ambassadors for the league possible. Josh Johnson has thrown two interceptions already in the first quarter, and the game is already over. Of course, it was all but over before the kickoff. It can’t be long now until we see Josh Freeman start to play for the Bucs – it’s not like they have anything to play for, and Freeman can’t be much worse than the alternative.
Injuries are always a big story in football – it’s the nature of the game. This year is no exception. Both the college and the pro games have been hit with an amazing number of key injuries that have to be seriously considered in betting decisions. Here’s a look at some of the more important ones:
1. I still have long term concerns about how good the Favre experiment will look in December, but one thing seems certain now – this team is only undefeated because they signed him. Or at least that seems reasonable. It’s hard to imagine that Rosenfels or Jackson would have been able to lead that comeback in the same way, or could have thrown that pass to win as time expired. I don’t see this team doing any real damage in the playoffs. I don’t even now for sure what the Vikings really have to offer, and likely won’t know until they play Baltimore in week six.
Continue reading “Ten Things I Learned From The NFL This Weekend”
1. Brett Favre has had a personality transplant. For the second straight game he played reasonably selfless team football, and it is working for him. He didn’t take any of the stupid risks that we have gotten used to, he settled for smaller plays that would have once driven him crazy, and he was stunningly efficient. If he can keep this up and not trip over his ego then he could really do something this year. I’m not betting on it, though – he can’t keep things under control for that long.
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