With the start of the NFL season, there is not a lot of data to analyze totals. But there are some factors to consider when NFL handicapping. Injuries, personnel changes and history between teams are just a few items to consider when looking at totals. Here is a breakdown on this week’s matchups:
Many young players tend to have a disappointing second season in what is known as a ‘sophomore slump’, while others show improvement. So how did our rookie quarterbacks do last season, and more importantly for NFL handicappers, how will they fare this season?
One of the most interesting storylines of the NFL preseason – one the few truly interesting ones, really – has been the quarterback situation in Pittsburgh. Ben Roethlisberger is likely to see his suspension decreased from six games to four, but the team – a serious Super Bowl contender in the eyes of many – will have to play without their biggest star for at least a month. That means that they have to find a guy who can not only start those four or six games, but who can keep the team’s hopes and dreams alive until Big Ben is back in action. This is a unique situation to consider, and a fun one to speculate about. It’s also an important situation for NFL handicappers to think about because there is going to be a lot of attention paid to Pittsburgh games, and there will be a chance for value if you call the games right. As you get ready for the regular season to start here are four things to consider about the situation:
There is a lot of attention paid every year to strength of schedule in the NFL. When the schedule is released lots of articles pop up talking about who has an easy schedule and who has a hard one, and talking heads go wild trying to explain what it all means and who has the edge. It’s talked about in grand and important tones, and given a lot of significance. This year, for example, people are talking about how the Niners and the Chargers could be lifted by schedules which are in the bottom five of the league in terms of difficulty, while the Texans, Bengals and Cowboys could see promising seasons compromised by playing top five difficulty schedules. There’s only one problem with that line of thinking – by itself strength of schedule is virtually a meaningless statistic. That’s especially true for NFL handicappers. Here are five good reasons why strength of schedule is more a distraction than a tool for bettors looking to place winning bets:
If you’re using the same information to handicap NFL football games as everyone else then you’re going to come to a lot of the same conclusions and fall int a lot of the same traps as everyone else as well. The nice thing about NFL handicapping is that there is so much information out there and so may people doing some really serious thinking about the game that with a little desire and research you can access some really phenomenal stats that will help you understand the game better, identify strengths and weaknesses quicker, and generally become a better bettor. Trying to figure out new stats can be very intimidating, though, because they can seem complicated and hard to understand. To ease you into your search for new stats here’s a look at four that are pretty easy to figure out, yet are very powerful:
The NFL football season is getting closer. It’s still too far away for most, but it’s a lot closer than it was a month ago. Instead of just sitting around impatiently waiting for things to get started smart NFL bettors are using this time to get more prepared for the season so that they are ready to identify and exploit any edge that they possibly can. To do that yourself here are five different things you could think about doing to improve your NFL handicapping. You don’t have to do all of them – anything you do is more than most of the public is doing, so it certainly won’t hurt:
We talked about turnover differential in our last article in handicapping season win totals. The premise is that luck tends to inflate and deflate a teams win over a course of a season. Normally teams that had positive turnover differential one season tend to not be so lucky the next time around and vice versa. We are looking to buck that trend again this season. Once again here is that turnover table from last year.
With teams preparing for mini-camps and training camps, here is a look at the season win totals and some strategy when trying to figure out whether to pick the over or the under.
The Venetian and Lucky’s were the first Vegas sportsbooks to release their totals for each team. Brobury Sports is one of the few online sportsbooks that have season win totals available. Here are the current odds: Continue reading “NFL Betting: Handicapping Season Win Totals”→