I’m going to do a much more comprehensive review of what we learned from the NFL today when I have more time tomorrow. For now, though, I just want to touch on five different stats. Each of them is almost impossible to believe, but they all happened. Not surprisingly, three of them came from the same game:
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Tag: New England Patriots
The Jets are mortal after all – I’ve been feeling all along that it is important to look at the Jets with context. They have been impressive on both sides of the ball, but it wasn’t going to be sustainable through all 16 games. That just wasn’t possible given that they were working with a totally rebuilt defense and a rookie quarterback. I don’t want to suggest that things are bleak or hopeless for this team – far from it. I just think that the setback against the Saints should remind us that our expectations for teams need to be reasonable or they will be costly.
1. I still have long term concerns about how good the Favre experiment will look in December, but one thing seems certain now – this team is only undefeated because they signed him. Or at least that seems reasonable. It’s hard to imagine that Rosenfels or Jackson would have been able to lead that comeback in the same way, or could have thrown that pass to win as time expired. I don’t see this team doing any real damage in the playoffs. I don’t even now for sure what the Vikings really have to offer, and likely won’t know until they play Baltimore in week six.
Continue reading “Ten Things I Learned From The NFL This Weekend”
1. New England Patriots – The Patriots are heavily favored to win it all – probably too favored. Still, they have as good a chance as anyone. If Brady is healthy, and it seems reasonable to assume that he will be, then he’ll be hungry to make up for lost time. He has all the tools he needs to do that – a good line to protect him, a strong wide receiver corps, perhaps the best running back battalion he has had in his time in New England, and so on. Defensively, the team is more than sound as well. On paper they are clearly the best team in the league, and they have the track record for living up to their potential.
This is probably a ridiculous position, and I don’t really think I believe in it, but as I was watching Matt Cassel look like a superstar as he tore Arizona to pieces, I couldn’t help but think that maybe New England’s QB situation isn’t as straigh forward as it seems. Maybe they should do the unthinkable and trade away Tom Brady. As a Michigan fan, I can’t believe that I am even thinking that. Still, here are five reasons why this ridiculous suggestion could make some sense:
I’m not going to offer a pick or any specific analysis about tonight’s huge NFL game – that’s not what I do here. This is a very interesting game, though, so I do want to take a closer look at it. Here are five different elements to this game that I will be watching closely, and which have factored significantly into my handicapping of the game:
1. I think that I’m not yet convinced that Chase Daniel is the clear Heisman leader that people say he is. Sure, the stats are compelling – he’s top five in the country in completion percentage, passing yards, yards per attempt, yards per game, and touchdowns. He’s only been sacked once, and he’s thrown just one pick. On top of all that, he completed 20 in a row against Buffalo. Here’s the thing, though – he’s only played one BCS team – Illinois – and his stats in that game were significantly worse than the rest – his completion percentage was 25 points worse, his yards per attempt were much worse, and both the pick and the sack came in that game. It’s not exactly like the Illini are known for their stout defense, either. Don’t get me wrong, I like him and his team. I just want to hold judgment until he gets through his tough stretch of next four games – Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Texas, Colorado. That’s a much better test of where he is at than what we have seen so far.
As we get down to the point where we can start counting down to the NFL season in hours or even minutes, I find myself constantly looking at the upcoming season from every different angle. It will be a very good thing when the season finally gets underway, because then I can’t start looking at what actually happens instead of driving myself crazy thinking about what might happen. Until then, though, all I can do is ask questions I can’t answer. Here are ten of those questions that keep coming back to the top of my mind:
Continue reading “Eight Questions Heading Into the NFL Season”
I don’t know about you, but I am itching for the football season to get here. Aching, really. NFL training camps get under way right away, so America’s favorite sport has been on my mind a lot lately. We’ll obviously spend a lot of time talking about the league in the weeks and months to come, but before we get into any specifics I just wanted to reflect on some of the general thoughts that are bouncing through my mind at this point.
Jacksonville – I like this team. A lot. Their division is a bit softer than it has been. Their offense is solid. Their defense is significantly upgraded. Every year there are a couple of teams that I either make or lose a fortune on. I strongly suspect that Jacksonville is one of those teams. They aren’t going to surprise anyone, and the public is going to be aware of them, but I still thin that they will play well enough to make some money.
Sportsbook.com has become the first book to release NFL season totals for next year. I’m not generally a fan of these bets, and especially not in the NFL when the possible range is so small because of the number of games they play. That doesn’t mean that there isn’t anything to learn from the bets, though. By looking at the numbers and the juice required we can get a good sense of how oddsmakers are feeling about some teams. If any are a surprise then we have lots of time to figure out if they seem right or wrong. Here are the strongest opinions based on the first numbers posted:
Continue reading “NFL Season Totals That Come At A High Price”
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