The Rays have come out of their little slump, when they lost eight of 13 games. They have won five of their last eight and still seem to be the team to beat. Rookie catcher John Jaso has provided some unexpected offense, hitting .307 and getting on base a lot.
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When you are handicapping baseball one of the easiest traps to fall into is the curse of the big name pitcher. Sometimes guys who have built a reputation up over years of excellence just aren’t performing at a level that matches that reputation. If you bet on them based on what they were or can be and not what they currently are then you’re just throwing away your money. There’s no value in the bets and there’s a much better chance than you expect that you are going to lose. Here’s a look at five guys with big reputations who haven’t been doing bettors any favors this season:
Continue reading “Starting Pitchers Burning Up Bettors Money”
When it comes to betting baseball, not all games are created equally. You can essentially break the season into three broad types of games that teams play – division games, games outside the division but in the league, and inter-league games. Each type of game has different characteristics which the successful bettor will recognize and look to exploit. Today I want to look at division games – why they are unique, and how to deal with them.
Something changes in baseball when the calendar turns to June. Through April and May we will often see players and pitchers post numbers that are far better than they were expected to, or teams that get off to shockingly good starts. By June, though, the season is a third over, and the weight of numbers and reality starts to weigh on players. Overachieving players start to come back to earth, and teams that are playing beyond themselves find that they just can’t do it anymore. June can be especially cruel for pitchers. By the time June dawns starting pitchers have faced many of their rivals at least once, and there is a large sample size of recent performances for opposing teams to scout before they face the pitchers. Good pitchers will still continue to be good pitchers, but those who are getting by because of unexpected or unfamiliar stuff aren’t going to get away with it anymore. Pitchers also have 10 or a dozen starts under their belts, so they are starting to feel the wear and tear of the season on their arms.
Continue reading “The Best and Worst June Starting Pitchers”
Stephen Strasburg is finally poised to make his major league debut. He made his last minor league appearance on Thursday afternoon, and barring anything unforeseen he is scheduled to join the Nationals for his first start on June 8 at home against the Pirates. It’s not an exaggeration to say that Strasburg is the most eagerly anticipated debuting pitcher in league history. Other pitchers have perhaps been as hyped, and have certainly been as talented, but the age of the internet has whipped up more of a frenzy around this one than was possible before. Strasburg’s every move has been followed since well before he was drafted, and highlights of all his minor league starts have been widely available for everyone to see. As we get ready for the arrival of the next great thing here are eight random things that are on my mind about the pitcher and the situation surrounding him:
Atlanta currently sits 2 ½ games up in the NL East after completing a sweep of the Phillies, with a 2-1 victory on Wednesday. In a span of 14 games, the Braves have climbed from last place in the division and 6 ½ games back, to its current position. The Braves own a Major League-best 19-6 record at home this season, but now head west with its current 12-16 mark away from Turner Field (-490). The team leads the majors with 237 walks and its .348 on-base percentage leads the National League. Rookie OF Jason Heyward leads the team with 10 homers and is batting .287 with a .412 on-base percentage. “The kid never ceases to amaze you,” manager Bobby Cox said.
Arizona is currently 0-7 on a three-city, nine-game road trip against Colorado, San Francisco and Los Angeles. This recent stretch leaves the team with a less than desirable 7-17 mark against the division (-1,000). The team has compiled a 6-11 mark when playing a series finale so far in 2010, including dropping the last four such games on the road (-408). The Diamondbacks’ 20-32 record (-1,180) is the third-worst 52-game start in club history behind the inaugural 1998 season and the beginning of the 2004 season. Don’t expect things to change with Wednesday’s starting time, with Arizona coming in with a 5-11 daytime record (-600). One offensive bright spot for the team is the right-side of the infield, as 1B Adam LaRoche and 2B Kelly Johnson have combined for 19 home runs and 58 RBI this season.
Needless to say, not all rotations in baseball are created equal. Some teams have five starting pitchers who are trustworthy and reliable to bettors, while others barely have one or two. You obviously need to handicap each pitcher separately – as opposed to betting on a team based on the strength or weakness of their rotation – but looking at the comparative strengths of the rotations from a betting perspective is still a useful and entertaining exercise. Here are my top four rotations in order:
There are some pitchers out there who are consistently good at going under the posted total, and others who have never met a total that they can’t go over. Some of that is related to their ERA and the way they are pitching – bad pitcher are going to allow a lot of runs and make t easier to go over, while great pitchers are stingy with runs and go deep in games, and it is hard to go over. There is more to it than just that, though. The pitchers have a big impact on the total that the oddsmakers set, so it only makes sense that both the performance and the public perception of those pitchers factors heavily into the line as it is set. A pitcher that performs at a higher level than the public perceives him to, then, could be a useful pitcher to play on the over/under. Here’s a look at 10 guys who have been particularly useful against the total so far this year:
Continue reading “Pitchers Going Consistently Over or Under This Season”
As a baseball bettor there is one thing I dream about – a pitcher who is consistently better than the public realizes he is. Thankfully, that’s not that hard to find. There are so many pitchers in the league that’s it hard for all but the most devoted followers of the sport to keep track of them all, and many good ones can fall through the cracks. Here’s a look at five guys who have been kind to observantbettors so far this year:
Continue reading “This Seasons Most Underappreciated Pitchers”
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