The Atlanta Falcons travel to Miami to take on the Dolphins in NFL preseason action Friday night. The Dolphins opened as 2 ½ point favorites, but our NFL betting page indicates that the line has come down to a pick at most sites, with a few listing the home Dolphins as 1 point favorites.
Continue reading “Wiseguys are Predicting the Falcons to Fly High Against the Dolphins”
This is a very interesting time when it comes to NFL win totals betting. They have been posted for a while now, so the initial action has bet out any obvious errors, but the public hasn’t yet paid a lot of attention to them. That likely means that the futures are somewhat more accurate now than they will be before the fans jump on the public teams. Because of that, looking at the odds right now shows us some very interesting trends and opinions. Based on the line movement and the prices available there are hints of some strong and interesting opinions held by those who have made bets so far. Here are 11 win totals that have seemed to have one-sided action so far. In each case the one-sided action can be a clue that the total is likely to change as the season nears, and it gives us something to think about when it comes to the teams (odds are form Bodog):
Continue reading “NFL Regular Season Win Totals Betting: A Look at the Early Moves”
With most NFL teams in the thick of their OTAs, it is time to take a look at the five best off-seasons so far. The uncapped year has provided the teams with a chance to invest more and the number of trades has gone up compared to other offseasons.
Continue reading “The Five NFL Teams With the Best Offseasons”
Favre’s ankle surgery could be sign for QB’s return
It’s looking more and more like Brett Favre will be back for a 20th season in the NFL. The Vikings QB had arthroscopic ankle surgery Friday which would enable him to participate in the Vikings’ training camp in July. While Favre didn’t officially comment on his plans to return for another season, this strongly suggests that Favre will be back in purple and gold for the 2011 season.
I absolutely love the Brandon Marshall deal – a true win-win for both teams. Denver obviously had to get rid of him, and getting two second round picks for him is impressive value all things considered. You’d like to get equivalent value, but that just doesn’t happen in the NFL. For Miami it’s a masterstroke. Ted Ginn Jr. was never going to be a number one receiver, so they needed to get someone. Marshall is an elite receiver – one of the top five – or fewer – in the whole league. It’s rare that you get access to a player like that, and especially rare that you get him at a price like this – one that is certainly fair. There is some risk that Marshall is going to be an attitude issue, but he should be happy to see new surroundings, Bill Parcells doesn’t take a lot of crap, and he does have the ability to play nice if he wants to. There is some downside risk, but it’s worth it to get a player of this caliber – a true game changer who can change an offense with his presence. As a diehard Michigan fan I’m obviously a big Chad Henne fan, and Henne – already a pretty solid NFL quarterback – has the opportunity to take his game to the next level. Henne looked pretty brilliant as a freshman throwing to Braylon Edwards, and Marshall is an even better deep threat than Edwards, so this pairing could be sweet music for years to come.
Three big personnel moves occurred in the NFL yesterday, and each of them is worth a discussion:
Ronnie Brown – The Dolphins’ impressive but fragile running back has been put on the IR, and that means he’s out for the season. This time it his right foot that is the problem. Back in 2007 it was his right leg. Maybe he should just amputate that leg and start over again. Needless to say, this is a big blow for an already fragile team. Only three teams have run better than the Dolphins this year, while only two teams have passed worse. Add in Brown’s impact as one of the only players in the league who can effectively run a wildcat and you have a big hole. They aren’t totally without hope – they still have Ricky Williams and he has looked good this year. Williams is a far more straight ahead, less versatile back than Brown is, though, and it’s doubtful that Williams will be able to lead a similarly effective running attack – if he can even stay healthy for the rest of the season.
Ryan Fitzgerald – Perry Fewell needed to make an impact quickly as the new head coach of the Bills, and he found the easiest way to do it – he changed his quarterback. The ineffective Trent Edwards has been benched in favor of the ineffective Ryan Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald has had significant play in three games so far this year, and the team has earned two of their three wins in that time. He has thrown twice as many touchdowns as interceptions, and has completed less than half his passes, so it’s not a perfect solution. The Bills have been a truly terrible passing team this year, though, so it won’t hurt. None of it gives me any reason to even consider backing the Bills now or into the future.
Bruce Gradkowski – It took far too long, but the Raiders have finally come to their senses. They have benched JaMarcus Russell and given Gradkowski the reins. It’s not just a fleeting thing, either – coach Cable says that Gradkowski will be given a real chance to settle in and play. Gradkowski is not a great QB and he is in a brutal situation, so this isn’t going to make a significant change for the team. It still was the only thing to do. Russell has been absolutely terrible, and he is making absolutely no progress while he is playing. He probably won’t make any progress when he isn’t playing, either, but at least he won’t be making more truly terrible plays and crushing his final shreds of confidence and self respect. I can’t imagine that the team will be anything other than relieved by the change – it might even give them a boost. The good news is that Gradkowski barely has to do anything to be just as good as Russell.
The Colts may have got a win to move to 2-0 tonight, but I’m sure not convinced by them yet. They got very lucky to win that one given that they barely had the ball on offense, and they weren’t always impressive when they did. If Miami had any ability at all to manage the clock down the stretch then both of these teams would have been 1-1. I didn’t think that the Colts were going to be elite this year before the season, and I haven’t seen anything yet to make me change my mind.
Ravens Vs. Miami
Run, Ravens, run: All of the Baltimore starting pass catchers are listed as “questionable.” Wide receiver Clayton has a bad knee, tight end Todd Heap’s having back trouble and wideout Derrick Mason’s shoulder is injured. Will the three starters play? Most likely, yes. But their range, durability and output will probably be reduced. Rookie QB Joe Flacco will be handing the ball off a lot to running backs Le’Ron McClain and Willis McGahee. The best thing that the Ravens’ offense can do is play cleanly, allowing the team’s defense to play its game and control Miami.
1. I think that I’m not yet convinced that Chase Daniel is the clear Heisman leader that people say he is. Sure, the stats are compelling – he’s top five in the country in completion percentage, passing yards, yards per attempt, yards per game, and touchdowns. He’s only been sacked once, and he’s thrown just one pick. On top of all that, he completed 20 in a row against Buffalo. Here’s the thing, though – he’s only played one BCS team – Illinois – and his stats in that game were significantly worse than the rest – his completion percentage was 25 points worse, his yards per attempt were much worse, and both the pick and the sack came in that game. It’s not exactly like the Illini are known for their stout defense, either. Don’t get me wrong, I like him and his team. I just want to hold judgment until he gets through his tough stretch of next four games – Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Texas, Colorado. That’s a much better test of where he is at than what we have seen so far.
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