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Tag: Green Bay Packers
Continue reading “Weekend Preseason NFL Betting Breakdown: Fading Public Bets”
This is a very interesting time when it comes to NFL win totals betting. They have been posted for a while now, so the initial action has bet out any obvious errors, but the public hasn’t yet paid a lot of attention to them. That likely means that the futures are somewhat more accurate now than they will be before the fans jump on the public teams. Because of that, looking at the odds right now shows us some very interesting trends and opinions. Based on the line movement and the prices available there are hints of some strong and interesting opinions held by those who have made bets so far. Here are 11 win totals that have seemed to have one-sided action so far. In each case the one-sided action can be a clue that the total is likely to change as the season nears, and it gives us something to think about when it comes to the teams (odds are form Bodog):
Continue reading “NFL Regular Season Win Totals Betting: A Look at the Early Moves”
NFL teams are absolutely obsessed with the defensive line. Finding players who can consistently provide pass rushing pressure is very hard to do, but teams use a lot of draft picks and spend millions on free agents in an attempt to do so. A team that can pressure the quarterback gets all sorts of attention form the public and the media. One that can stuff the run is a bit more under the radar, but no less valued by team management. The best way for a defensive front to provide apply pressure is a topic of much debate and contention, and there are about as many advocates of 3-4 schemes as those that back a 4-3.
Continue reading “NFL Handicapping: Defensive Fronts Covering Point Spreads”
We talked about turnover differential in our last article in handicapping season win totals. The premise is that luck tends to inflate and deflate a teams win over a course of a season. Normally teams that had positive turnover differential one season tend to not be so lucky the next time around and vice versa. We are looking to buck that trend again this season. Once again here is that turnover table from last year.
Continue reading “NFL Betting: Regular Season Win Total Picks”
The not entirely surprising news flew around the internet this morning that Kurt Warner could be in his last days as an NFL quarterback. The always mysterious ‘anonymous sources close to the situation’ say that Warner’s next loss could be his last. That makes sense in many way given that he is now 38 years old, and he had a concussion earlier this year. The way he played today, though, it’s pretty clear that he plans to go out the right way. Warner was absolutely brilliant today – about as good as a quarterback can be. He was 29 of 33 for 379 yards and five touchdowns. Brilliant. Warner had a good shot at a sixth touchdown as well at the end of regulation. He marched 60+ yards down the field effortlessly, but stopped on first down with 14 seconds left to give Neil Rackers a shot at an easy winning field goal – one that he uncharacteristically missed. The Green Bay defense had strengthened up and found itself in the second half of the season, but Warner just shredded it all day today. A lot of people made the mistake of counting out Warner and the Cardinals last year. Despite getting burned by that, people overwhelmingly made the same mistake today. I’m still not convinced by any means that they have what it takes to win the NFC two years in a row, but I wouldn’t rule them out. No matter what, every remaining NFC game will be played in a climate controlled building, and that’s just what the Cards need. Their defense was a real problem today, but their offense was more than up to the task of making up for that. The Saints have real defensive woes as well, and seem vulnerable on both sides of the ball. Minnesota and Dallas both play good defense on average, but both can have rough days from time to time. No matter what, the rest of the NFC playoffs are going to be brilliant. That should more than make up for an AFC schedule that is frankly a bit boring in my eyes (boring become it seems almost predetermined, and because it seems hard to imagine exciting games next weekend).
A little football, then a little baseball today:
First, the football. That was a very interesting game last night. I wasn’t particularly excited about it – fatigue over the Favre hype. In the end, though, it ended up being interesting for a number of reasons. First, and most troubling for Green Bay, that is one terrible offensive line they have there. Jared Allen is a nice player, but not nearly that nice. He absolutely decimated Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, and gave them little chance of success. The Packers were a team I was very keen on coming into the season, but they stand little chance of doing anything meaningful until they find a way to offer even a little bit of protection. That was pathetic. On the other side, Minnesota’s offensive line performance was very mixed. On one hand, Favre had all of the time in the world to do whatever he wanted, and he made the most of it. On the other hand, though, Adrian Peterson was contained in a very surprising and uncharacteristic way. The final piece of interest out of this game is the question of just how good they Vikings are. They are 4-0 and will be hyped up significantly after this high profile win, but I still don’t feel like we have seen them really be tested. The first two wins against the Browns and the Lions prove nothing. The San Francisco game probably should have been a loss if it wasn’t for the fluky last second pass. The Packers weren’t a particularly real test either given that offensive line. Next up is the Rams, too, so this team will be 5-0 without a true test. This team is good, but we won’t know how good until we see them play the Ravens in week six. In my eyes this is a very tough team to assess right now.
1. Brett Favre has had a personality transplant. For the second straight game he played reasonably selfless team football, and it is working for him. He didn’t take any of the stupid risks that we have gotten used to, he settled for smaller plays that would have once driven him crazy, and he was stunningly efficient. If he can keep this up and not trip over his ego then he could really do something this year. I’m not betting on it, though – he can’t keep things under control for that long.
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