0-4 in the Preseason once again for the Colts, dont worry, these guys are still damn good
As we are closing in on opening day for the National Football League, the fans had to endure a month of preseason games.

Continue reading “What NFL Handicappers Should Have Learned From the Preseason”

2nd year quarterback Mark Sanchez
NFL handicappers may overvalue just how much Mark Sanchez improves in his 2nd year
Many young players tend to have a disappointing second season in what is known as a ‘sophomore slump’, while others show improvement. So how did our rookie quarterbacks do last season, and more importantly for NFL handicappers, how will they fare this season?

Continue reading “NFL Handicapping: Looking at the Second Year Quarterbacks”

Lions Vs Steelers Preseason Betting Preview
Will Big Ben Play Tonight? Expect the betting odds to tick up a hair if Tomlin says he is getting some snaps.
The big question for the Pittsburgh Steelers going into their preseason opener against the Detroit Lions is, will we see QB Ben Roethlisberger?  Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin refused to comment on whether or not the troubled signal caller will play, but his team will still enter the game as home favorites at -3 on the NFL point spread regardless.  Unlike his predecessor Bill Cowher, Tomlin has been an outstanding coach in the preseason with a 10-3 career mark.

Continue reading “Preseason NFL Betting Preview: Lions Vs Steelers Spread”

My 12-7 ATS record last year proves I cover for bettors just as often as my predecessor Mr Dungy did
The problem right now for most sports bettors is that the football season is so close that’s alluring, camps are underway, week 1 NFL lines are posted, but there is still a whole pile of time to kill between now and the first meaningful kickoff. Far too long. In  an attempt to kill some of that time while still being productive, I thought I’d take a look back at the teams that have been consistently good against the spread over the last five season, and those that have been consistently bad. The reasoning is that the five year time frame smooths out some of the flukes and unexplainable one year glitches – like the year Cleveland was actually good – and gives us a more meaningful long term picture. Before we look at what I found, I’m going to be like a bad comedian and tell the punchline before the joke – it’s really striking here that the teams that have been consistently solid against the spread are the teams that have been consistently very good, and the ones that have consistently burned money are the terrible teams. In this regard at least, the betting public is right in their NFL pick loyalties:

Continue reading “Best and Worst NFL Teams Against the Spread the Last 5 Seasons”

We talked about turnover differential in our last article in handicapping season win totals.  The premise is that luck tends to inflate and deflate a teams win over a course of a season.  Normally teams that had positive turnover differential one season tend to not be so lucky the next time around and vice versa.  We are looking to buck that trend again this season.  Once again here is that turnover table from last year.

Continue reading “NFL Betting: Regular Season Win Total Picks”

With most NFL teams in the thick of their OTAs, it is time to take a look at the five best off-seasons so far. The uncapped year has provided the teams with a chance to invest more and the number of trades has gone up compared to other offseasons.

Continue reading “The Five NFL Teams With the Best Offseasons”

There was a lot of good sports action yesterday. Here’s a look at the biggest stories to come out of the day:

1. Detroit has a long, long, long way to go. There were a couple of good things going on in their game against Green Bay, but not many. Matthew Stafford looks like a deer in the headlights, and I can’t imagine that getting chased around the field before throwing yet another interception is helping him become a better quarterback. I’m not writing the guy off yet, but this isn’t positive.

Continue reading “Looking Back on Turkey Day”

The Jets are mortal after all – I’ve been feeling all along that it is important to look at the Jets with context. They have been impressive on both sides of the ball, but it wasn’t going to be sustainable through all 16 games. That just wasn’t possible given that they were working with a totally rebuilt defense and a rookie quarterback. I don’t want to suggest that things are bleak or hopeless for this team – far from it. I just think that the setback against the Saints should remind us that our expectations for teams need to be reasonable or they will be costly.

Continue reading “Sunday NFL Lessons”

1. I still have long term concerns about how good the Favre experiment will look in December, but one thing seems certain now – this team is only undefeated because they signed him. Or at least that seems reasonable. It’s hard to imagine that Rosenfels or Jackson would have been able to lead that comeback in the same way, or could have thrown that pass to win as time expired. I don’t see this team doing any real damage in the playoffs. I don’t even now for sure what the Vikings really have to offer, and likely won’t know until they play Baltimore in week six.

Continue reading “Ten Things I Learned From The NFL This Weekend”

I never thought that the Lions, as bad as they were, would be able to pull off the 0-16 miracle last year, but they did. I don’t think that another team will be that bad this year, but if a few teams get just a little bit too unlucky then anything can happen. Here are the five teams that seem most likely to flirt with the disaster:

Continue reading “Look Out Detroit, Here They Come!”

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