1. Alabama isn’t as good as we thought. I don’t like Kentucky much at all. This should be a rebuilding year for them. That makes it more than a bit concerning to me that they played the Tide as close as they did. Any team can have a bad day – just ask USC or Ohio State. My concern with Alabama, though, is that Kentucky was able to set the tone on both sides of the ball at times, and they were able to completely neutralize the passing game. That doesn’t bode well for a team that still has two or three tough games ahead. I know that they beat up on Georgia, but I don’t like them, either. My comfortable prediction – Alabama won’t finish the year in the top five.
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Tag: College Football
Once again, here’s a look at the games this week that are catching my eye. As always, I want to be clear that these are picked out because they have interesting storylines, not because I suggest that they are good bets, or that I am making a pick. When I am looking at games I definitely differentiate between the games that I am interested in betting and the ones I am interesting in exploring further. These games fit into the latter, and they are just fun to think about. Put another way – some games I only watch because I bet on them. These are the games I would watch whether I had any action or not.
Worst NFL Game of the Week – This is harder to spot than most weeks – the matchups mostly have at least a little interest. That means that, more than any week so far, there really isn’t a truly bad game here. That means we have to pick the worst of a decent bunch. In my mind that’s going to be Cincinnati at Dallas. The Bengals are truly, absolutely awful, and they may not have Carson Palmer in action. Even if they do he won’t be healthy. The Cowboys had an off game, and I expect them to come back hungry and angry. This one should be a dull, lopsided mess.
Best NFL Game of the Week – As I said before, there are a lot of good games this week, but none that are true and obvious classics, so this is a tight competition. There are a couple or runner-ups. Tennessee at Baltimore is a battle of two teams that are better than they were probably expected to be, and it should be a classic defensive battle. Buffalo at Arizona is a good test of a team that has been an upstart and wants to prove that they are for real. For my winner, though, I have to go to the most consistently excellent division in the league so far this year – the NFC East. Washington and Philly are both promising teams that don’t quite have their acts completely together, but they both have obvious promise. It should be good.
Game With Teams With the Most to Prove – Indianapolis and Houston. Coming into the season the Colts were favored to win their division, and a lot of people had Houston picked as a wild card team. They have combined to go 1-5 so far. They both have a world of problems, but both present just enough points of optimism to keep fans interested. A loss here will be a huge blow to either team.
Ridiculously Over-hyped – Terrell Owens has assured that we are going to hear about the Cowboys way, way more than we need to. Thanks, buddy.
1. The polls are essentially meaningless at this point in the season. Ranked teams that played unranked teams were 6-9 ATS this week. Five of those ranked teams lost their games despite being double digit favorites. The lower ranked team won both games played between ranked teams.
It’s time for another look at the key games of interest this weekend from among the top 25. As always, I haven’t picked these out because they necessarily represent the best bets, and I am not representing them as picks. They are merely the ones with the storylines that I find most interesting this weekend. Without further ado:
Once more with a look forward to the weekend:
Worst NFL game of the week – This is getting pretty easy. You just look at the games involving Kansas City and St. Louis and decide which one is more painful. That has worked so far, but I am actually going to do something different this time around. Kansas City hosts Denver. That won’t be exciting, and the Chiefs won’t win, but the Broncos have an explosive offense and should be able to burn up the scoreboard. Scoring is fun to watch. Buffalo visits St. Louis. That one will be interesting for a couple of reasons – we can see what Trent Edwards can do in a glorified practice, and we can see if Trent Green still has any game. That leaves me with my choice – Cleveland at Cincinnati. Two broken teams with enormous problems. The potential for true terribleness.
As we did last weekend, here’s a look at what I think are the most interesting top 25 games of the weekend. Not included on here is the obvious one – USC-Ohio State. If you’re not totally sick of hearing about that game by now then you are a better person than me. For the record, I think USC will win, but I think the line movement has been utterly ridiculous this week. It also doesn’t include perhaps the most interesting top 25 game of the week – Kansas-USF – because that one has already happened.
I’m not going to be providing picks for games here, but each Saturday during the college season I will be highlighting the Top 25 games that I think are the most worth checking out.
Ohio (+33) at Ohio State – This one is interesting not in it’s own right, but because of what is on the horizon. Ohio State can handle Ohio in their sleep. Beanie Wells is out, though, and USC will be sitting at home watching this one, so the Buckeyes won’t be looking to show off any tricks. This will be a plain vanilla game plan and the Buckeyes will be looking to stay healthy for next week. If you don’t believe in the Buckeyes then this could be a spot to consider playing against them. They’ll win for sure, but they may not care enough to win by five touchdowns. I just hope that we get to see Terrelle Pryor play more.
– Dave Wannstedt death watch? – Pitt was ranked to start the season (for no good reason, but that’s another story), but they did what they have done in the entire Wannstedt era – they disappointed. Bowling Green is among the elite in an underappreciated MAC, and they delivered a real setback to a Big East conference that already struggles for respect. Surely Pitt won’t tolerate the ceaseless mediocrity of this coaching regime for much longer.
1. Georgia might be first now, but they aren’t going to still be there by January.
2. Matthew Stafford will not be the number one pick in the draft.
3. USC has not been profitable against the spread in three seasons. I don’t expect that to change.
4. Notre Dame’s bug season is not going to materialize this year, and Charlie Weis is going to be in trouble because of it.
5. Missouri is the real deal. Their schedule doesn’t have a lot of obvious losses on it. None, really. Two games should be tough, two more could be a problem if they don’t have their act together, and the rest should be wins. Missouri is a real contender.
6. The winner of the Ohio State – USC game will play in the national championship
7. Michigan will win nine games this year. I wouldn’t touch them ATS, though.
8. West Virginia will not be in the BCS.
9. BYU will run the table ad be in the BCS.
10. Tim Tebow will not repeat as Heisman winner.
11. Colorado will be the best team with a bad record in the country. Their schedule is absolutely brutal, but they will continue to improve.
12. Stanford will finish higher than UCLA in the Pac-10 standings.
13. Nick Saban will annoy me at least 37 times this season. Charlie Weis and Jim Tressel will exceed that total. Steve Spurrier won’t quite make it to 37 times, but he’ll be close.
14. South Florida will win the Big East
15. Virginia Tech will win the ACC
16. Ohio State and USC are absolutel locks to win their conferences
17. Missouri will win the Big 12
18. I’ll take Florida in the SEC, but I don’t feel too good about it
19. Dan LeFevour of Central Michigan will, once again, be the most underappreciated player in the country.
20. Arizona State will lose twice, but will look very good otherwise and will be a tough bowl opponent.
21. It’s going to be a really long year for LSU.
22. Hawaii won’t be very good, but they will be much better ATS than they were last year.
23. Joe Paterno will be forced to retire after yet another frustratingly mediocre season.
24. This is the last season in a long while that Lane Kiffin won’t be a college coach.
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