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Five Thoughts about each of Saturday’s games:
Arizona (+7) at New Orleans
1. The total is interesting here. The books set it at a sky high 57.5 – higher than either team had faced all year. Still, because of what Arizona did last week and what New Orleans is capable of doing I was expecting that the public might push it higher still. They haven’t – it’s down as low as 56. That’s more restraint than I typically give the public credit for having.
The not entirely surprising news flew around the internet this morning that Kurt Warner could be in his last days as an NFL quarterback. The always mysterious ‘anonymous sources close to the situation’ say that Warner’s next loss could be his last. That makes sense in many way given that he is now 38 years old, and he had a concussion earlier this year. The way he played today, though, it’s pretty clear that he plans to go out the right way. Warner was absolutely brilliant today – about as good as a quarterback can be. He was 29 of 33 for 379 yards and five touchdowns. Brilliant. Warner had a good shot at a sixth touchdown as well at the end of regulation. He marched 60+ yards down the field effortlessly, but stopped on first down with 14 seconds left to give Neil Rackers a shot at an easy winning field goal – one that he uncharacteristically missed. The Green Bay defense had strengthened up and found itself in the second half of the season, but Warner just shredded it all day today. A lot of people made the mistake of counting out Warner and the Cardinals last year. Despite getting burned by that, people overwhelmingly made the same mistake today. I’m still not convinced by any means that they have what it takes to win the NFC two years in a row, but I wouldn’t rule them out. No matter what, every remaining NFC game will be played in a climate controlled building, and that’s just what the Cards need. Their defense was a real problem today, but their offense was more than up to the task of making up for that. The Saints have real defensive woes as well, and seem vulnerable on both sides of the ball. Minnesota and Dallas both play good defense on average, but both can have rough days from time to time. No matter what, the rest of the NFC playoffs are going to be brilliant. That should more than make up for an AFC schedule that is frankly a bit boring in my eyes (boring become it seems almost predetermined, and because it seems hard to imagine exciting games next weekend).
So, when did the NFL become less competitive than non-conference college football? Six of the 12 games played yesterday were decided by at least four touchdowns. That’s preposterous. It makes for ridiculously uncompetitive action, and therefore mostly uninteresting football. The good news, I guess, is that at least we aren’t taking bets on the games – books are getting absolutely killed by favorites covering monster spreads like this. The favorites were 8-3-1 ATS this week, and the three biggest spreads, usually the public money magnets that the books feast on, all covered. Ouch. The disparity in the league this year is amazing. For the first time ever we have three undefeated teams through seven weeks of the season. On the flip side, we have three teams that could quite conceivably not win a game, and for a couple more it seems impossible to believe that they have already won one (or more). I thought salary caps were supposed to bring competitive balance?
So, I’ve been thinking with all of the garbage you hear about guys in professional sports who are baby-cries, idiots and cheaters, there definitely are some players that you can’t help but root for. No, I am not nominating these guys for sainthood, but I am saying that they have character, a strong work ethic and come to play everyday.
The Steelers might have the hardware, but the biggest winner in the NFL playoffs is unquestionably Todd Haley, the former offensive coordinator of the Cardinals. Heading into the playoffs few people knew his name, and he wasn’t mentioned with any regularity surrounding coaching vacancies. He put together a phenomenal playoff run, though, and all of a sudden he is the head coach with the Chiefs. Not only did he get the job, but they clearly held it open for him, because it all came about quite quickly. It’s not just that he landed a job, either – he landed a pretty good one. The team doesn’t have a whole lot to work with right now, but they are at least $45 million under the salary cap for next year, and they have the third pick in the draft, so lots can be done. On top of that, his new boss is Scott Pioli , the architect of New England’s success. The Chiefs were far from good last year, but they played with more pride than some bad teams, and there were a few good reasons to believe that the future was bright before this move and thePioli hiring. Now this has to be a team to be bullish about on the longer term. Haley takes over a team with promise, he has new facilities on the way, and that all means a bright future.
This year has certainly brought its share of surprises. I don’t know if they did the same to you, but here are ten things that caught me off-guard.
Chicago Blackhawks and Boston Bruins: Okay, am I dreaming or what? Neither of these teams could do anything right over the last decade or so and now the Blackhawks are in the playoff hunt and the Bruins are at the top of their division! Got to love long time AHL goalie Tim Thomas who made it to the bigs just a few seasons ago with the Bruins. He’s one guy who has gotten better with age.
I’m what I would call an enthusiastic amateur horseplayer. I absolutely love going to the races, and I love the puzzle that races present, but I don’t put in the time or effort that it takes to be good at picking winners over the long term. Regular winners at the tracks are magicians. Because I’m not a hardcore ‘capper I have to rely on tricks to spot winners from time to time. My favorite such trick is to look in the past performances for a horse that loses ground compared to the leader at some point in the race, and then gains it back later on. That shows a couple of things – the horse is in good enough shape to be ready for a late charge, and he has the heart and determination to pick himself back up when he is down. If a horse has done that at least twice in his last five races then he’s certainly worth a real look.
Yes, hype week is here and that means that the biggest of a big football games is less than a week away. The Pittsburgh Steelers are seven-point favorites and you’ve got to wonder if that fact will simply fuel the Arizona Cardinals in their quest for respect. The Cards have gotten no respect due to the fact that they won a weak division with a 9- 7 record and, in doing so, lost four of their last six games. Three of those loses were to the playoff bound Giants, Vikings and Eagles and the other was to the Patriots. Many felt going into the post-season that the Cardinals were, at the best, lucky and not good enough to be there. But now, it seems to me, that no one has bothered to see what they’ve done in the post-season. I mean don’t they play the game for a reason?
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