Super Bowl XLVII
Baltimore Ravens vs San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, February 3, 2013, 6:30 pm Eastern, TV: CBS
Mercedes-Benz Super Dome – New Orleans, Louisiana
All prop odds courtesy of Bovada.
Ever since Super Bowl XX, when the Chicago Bears obliterated the New England Patriots 46-10, proposition wagers have become an important and profitable part of wagering on the Super Bowl. Bovada offers over 500 props on Sunday’s game between the AFC Champion Baltimore Ravens and NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers. Some of the bigger Vegas casinos have up to 11 pages of props on the game. Here are some team props we like on the game, and will discuss player props in another article. All odds are courtesy of Bovada.
Coin Toss: Heads (-105) or Tails (-105)
Why not start the game off with some action on the most random act of the game? The last 4 Super Bowl coin tosses have come up heads, so tails is due right? Well, not really, as each toss is an independent action. If you are really adventurous, you can bet a dime on the coin toss and nothing else.
Team to Score First Wins Game: Yes (-160) vs No (+130)
Through 46 Super Bowls, the team that has scored first has won the game 30 times. However, 8 of the 16 times they haven’t won have come in the last 15 Super Bowls. The last team to score first an not win was the Colts against the Saints in Super Bowl XLIV. Both the 49ers and Ravens were down early in their last 2 playoff games, and obviously came back to win. I think No at +130 is worth a play because both of these teams have been resilient all season.
Team to score last wins game – Yes (-190) vs No (+155)
In the past seven Super Bowls, the team that has scored last has won the game. The Philadelphia eagles scored a late touchdown to make it 24-21 against the New England Patriots, the last time the winning team didn’t score last in the game. That was in Super Bowl XXXIX. Both the Ravens and 49ers appear evenly matched, and this game should come down to the wire. Yes is worth a play at -190.
Will either team score three unanswered times? Yes (-165) vs No (+135)
In a game that should be close, I think no is worth a play. However, the 49ers were down 17-0 to the Falcons early in the NFC Championship game.
Will either team score in the first 6:30 of the first quarter? Yes (-115) vs No (-115)
I include this prop because I think it is a mistake. I think it is supposed be 7:30 instead of 6:30. The reason I say this is because Bovada also has a prop for scoring in the first 6 minutes of the game. In that one yes is +120 and no is -150. If you are going to take yes, you would take the six minutes and get plus money, and the opposite for no as you could lay -115 instead of -150. I know a lot could happen in 30 seconds but to me that is worth the gamble.
Will both teams have the lead in the first half? Yes (+130) vs No (-160)
As i said I expect this game to be close throughout. It is entirely possible one team kicks a field goal and other scores a touchdown. Scores like 7-3, 10-7, or 13-10 happen in football all the time. yes is certainly worth a play at +130.
Will the Last Play of the game be a Quarterback Rush? Yes (-175) vs No (+145)
Since a quarterback rush also includes a kneel down play, you are betting on whether the team leading has the ball or whether the whether the other team is trying to score. It also includes overtime. So no is worth a play at +145 in my opinion. Think of all the ways a game can end other than a kneel down. A Hail Mary pass/lateral play, a field goal attempt, a handoff to the running back, a kickoff, a punt, an extra point or a touchdown in overtime would all win you the bet on no. Now, let’s say Baltimore is up by 4 points with 5 seconds to go. The 49ers have first and goal at the two, Colin Kaepernick can’t find an open receiver, but rushes for the game winning touchdown. If they kick the extra point, which NFL rules say has to be attempted in regulation but not overtime, then you still win on the no. So the only way you lose on the no is a kneel down, or if the team ahead gives up a safety to avoid a punt. That last one very rarely occurs.
Will the game go into overtime? Yes (+600) vs No (-1000)
It hasn’t happened yet in 46 previous Super Bowls, but there have been recent games that have come close to going into overtime. It will happen eventually, and a small wager on yes might be worth it. Don’t go crazy at 6/1 but jsut have some fun.
Will there be a lead change in the second half? Yes (+145) vs No (-175)
As mentioned, I think it will be close. It is exceedingly possible the teams could trade the lead several times. Yes is worth a play at plus money. Both teams trailed in the first half in their respective championship games and took the lead in the second half.
Will there be a successful 2 point conversion? Yes (+375) vs No (-550)
Yes is worth a play at +375. You need a score like 14-3 or 21-13 to increase your chances of a two point conversion happening but it isn’t outside the realm of possibility.
Those are some of the team props I like. I will discuss some team props in another article.
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