Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a series!
After the Lakers won the first two games on home-court handily, the Suns came back to tie the series after a 115-106 win at US Airways Center Tuesday. Los Angeles looked like it was going to run away with the series after two big wins by 21 points and 12 points, but Phoenix turned around answered with two decisive wins of their own.
It took the Suns a strong effort from their bench Tuesday as Grant Hill only scored eight points and Steve Nash struggled on 3-for-11 shooting. Nash scored eight of his 15 points from the free throw line. The Suns’ bench bailed out the struggling starters and contributed 54 points. Channing Frye scored 14 of those, hitting four of his eight shots from beyond the arc.
The Lakers struggled with the Suns zone at times. They took more shots from beyond-the-arc and a 32.1 three-point-percentage was not enough to keep LA in the game. Their free-throw attempts also went down noticeably from the first three games.
While those offensive struggles contributed to the loss, Kobe Bryant identified the Lakers’ defense as the biggest concern going into Game 5. He questioned the defensive mentality and hustle of his team, rightfully so. The Lakers looked slow in transition – lazy at times – and failed to keep their defensive assignments due to a lack of energy.
Bryant hasn’t shown any signs of his injuries all series long, scoring 40, 21, 36 and 38 points in the first four games. He has scored 30 or more points in eight of his last nine games. When the Suns double-teamed him more frequently in Game 2, Kobe was able to find his open teammates. He racked up 13 assists, the most by a Lakers player in a playoff game since Magic Johnson in 1996.
Home-court has proven crucial in this series so far, and the Suns will have to steal one in the Staples Center to have a shot at advancing to the finals. This trend doesn’t come as a surprise as both teams posted great regular season records at home. The Lakers hold a share of second place in the category with a 34-7 home record. The Suns went 32-9 at home.
Phoenix’s road-record in the regular season was 22-19. The Suns won two games on the road in each of their series against the Portland and San Antonio, so they have shown that they can win away from home in the playoffs.
Going into Game 5, the Lakers are a 7 1/2 point favorite. Bookmaker and 5Dimes both offer the spread at -110. Bookmaker has the Suns on the Moneyline at +330 and the Lakers at -400. 5Dimes offers Phoenix at +320 and the Lakers at -390.
The series has been high-scoring so far. The average point total for the series is 229.75 per game. The 236 points in Game 2 raised the average a little bit, but expect another high point total Thursday. Bookmaker and 5Dimes both run the over/under at 2171/2 (-110).
Bookmaker also offers team total points. They give bettors the option to wager on the Lakers over/under 1121/2 (-110) and the Suns over/under 1051/2 (-110).
Based on the total we will see another shootout Thursday night. Expect the Lakers to adjust their defense and play with more energy. Phil Jackson won’t allow the team to show another effort like in Game 4. The Suns will most likely play their zone for a big part of the game, as it has proven successful.
I expect the Lakers to bounce back in Game 5 and take the 3-2 series lead. I see the series going seven games. The Suns’ crowd will be a huge factor in Game 6, and I don’t see Phoenix losing at home. They have been extremely loud in Games 3 and 4 and they helped the team get back in the series.
* all odds as of May 27, 5:15am PST
