The Bills opened as 3 point home favorites, and while the line held solid over most of the week, in the past day the line has come down to a single point at most sites. However a couple sites are posting 2 points and Bodog has the number. Even though the Bills have been improving, the value is still with Detroit in this game.
One reason for the Bills being favored is the injury to Matthew Stafford. Stafford finally returned last week from a shoulder injury he suffered in week 1 at Chicago. But against the Jets, Stafford re-injured his shoulder and is not expected to play against Buffalo. That means Shaun Hill will get the start.
But Hill did a great job in relief of Stafford, and he’s actually played the vast majority of the season so far. So it’s not as though Hill is coming in cold off the bench. He’s taken snaps with the starters in practice, and he also has game time experience.
It’s easy to sing the praises of Hill. This year the Lions rank 8th in the League in passing yards per game. Calvin Johnson has had a Pro Bowl worthy season, and that’s due in part to Hill getting him the ball. Further, the Lions are 7-1 against the spread, and Hill has played in every game and started six of them.
That’s why this line seems to have good value for Detroit. The Lions have been playing decent football this year with Hill as the starter, and the injury to Stafford has affected the line more than it should. Although Stafford is a better quarterback, the Lions don’t lose that much with Hill under center.
Additionally, I’m still trying to figure out how many times in NFL history a winless team in week 10 has been lined as a favorite. Seriously, this looks off. Buffalo hasn’t figured out how to win a football game and they’re favored against Detroit, giving points to the NFL’s top team against the spread.
The Bills have done nothing special against the spread. They’re 0-1 as a favorite, which came against Jacksonville about a month ago. They’re 0-3 at home (and 3-1 on the road), which is another reason to see this line too far in Buffalo’s favor. On the flip side, Detroit is 5-1 as an underdog and 3-1 on the road.
Getting points with the Lions in this match up is a gift. The Lions are awesome against the spread this year because they’re much better than they’ve been in recent years. Even without Stafford, the Lions with Hill, Johnson, and company have given great effort week in and week out. They have to see this as a winnable game and should get it. Go to Bodog and grab 3 points with Detroit – that’s where the value is.
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