New York Mets (45-42­) AT Los Angeles Dodgers (37-51)
July 7th, 2011 at 10:10 PM EST
Opening Line:  LAD -150, NYM +130
Current Line:  LAD -149, NYM +129
Opening Total:  6.5
Current Total:  6.5

SP:  NYM- Dillon Gee; LAD- Clayton Kershaw

The Mets are finally winning and doing so in impressive fashion.  As winners of their last 4 games, they have managed to plow teams without their best hitter, José Reyes, who suffered a hamstring injury.  His replacement, Ruben Tejada, has filled in admirably and had a two run double in the sixth inning last night, enabling the Mets to have an opportunity at a sweep tonight.

Facing Clayton Kershaw may prove to be their kryptonite.  Kershaw has won 8 of his 12 decisions this season and sports a 3.23 ERA.  If they are able to handle the youngster, however, it will propel them 4 games over .500, something that hasn’t happened since last July 20th when the Mets were 49-45.

“We started really bad, and it was a little frustrating,” said Mets closer Francisco Rodriguez. “But now that we’re playing at the level that we’re supposed to be playing, everything is a lot easier and a lot of fun for us.”

Kershaw leads the league in strikeouts and suffered his first loss since April 26th last outing.  Prior to that point he had a stretch of 11 games, in which he won 6 decisions (while losing none) and compiling a 2.64 ERA, while opponents hit .199 against him.  His last outing, however, he gave up 6 earned runs and 9 hits in 6 innings as the Dodgers fell 7-1 to the Angels.

Last season, Kershaw recorded 212 strikeouts in 204 innings pitched (1.03 strikeouts/inning), aided by his fastball which reaches the mid-90s, as well as using a slider that has proven to be highly effective.  So far this season, he has been even more effective, with 138 strikeouts in 122 innings (1.13 strikeouts/inning).

He’s struck out 10 or more in his last three outings and struck out eight over 6 2/3rds innings of work against the Mets on May 8th.  In his four career starts against the Mets, he has compiled a 1.85 ERA, though his strikeout ratio hasn’t been as good (5.0 K/9inn).

The Mets are hardly sending a scrub to the mound in Dillon Gee.  While Gee struggled in his last outing, he still has an 8-2 record with a 3.47 ERA, nearly as good as Kershaw.  He pitched well last outing, but did not record a decision, though the Mets won 4-2 over the Dodgers.

That game, he also ended Andre Ethier’s 30 game hitting streak.  Ethier is batting .316 on the year and has 42 RBIs.  Ethier was predicted by Baseball Prospectus to hit .299 this season with 82 RBIs, and it appears he is going to outperform both projections.

Matt Kemp doesn’t look at his Dodgers as a last place team, saying taht they are “better than last place” and that they “should definitely be in the hunt for one of the best records in the NL West…we’re all disappointed in ourselves at this moment.”  While competing for one of the best records in the NL West may be a stretch this season, they are hoping Kershaw can help right the ship so they at least start winning some games.

Some betting trends:

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the Mets’ last 7 games and they are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.  The Mets are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games on the road and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 against the Dodgers.  The Mets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 against the L.A. Dodgers and they are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games on the road against the Dodgers.  The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Mets’ last 5 games on the road against the Dodgers.

The LA Dodgers are 0-5 SU In their last 5 games and the total has gone UNDER In 5 of their last 7 games.  It has also gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 at home, while the Dodgers are 1-6 SU in their last 7 home games.  The Dodgers are also 1-5 SU in their last 6 against the NY Mets and the total has gone UNDER In 4 of the last 5 games against the Mets.  The total has also gone UNDER in 4 of the last 5 at home against the Mets, while the Dodgers are 2-4 SU in their last 6 home games against the Mets.

Given the Dodgers struggles and the fact they are facing a tough pitcher in Gee, I don’t expect the Dodgers to produce many runs.  The same, however, holds true for the Mets, as facing Kershaw could potentially slow them down.  That said, the ‘under’ is particuarly attractive, even with the total set low at 6.5.