As the tournament heads into the Sweet 16 and every shot becomes more and more important, it’s imperative that bettors consider each team’s foul shooting along with their capacity for drawing and tendency to commit fouls. So often when the game is on the line, the winner and loser are determined by what happens at the free throw line.
Consider the Connecticut Huskies, North Carolina Tar Heels, Pittsburgh Panthers and Louisville Cardinals—all number one seeds. Heading into the next part of the Big Dance, each team’s survival could hinge on foul shooting and disciplined play when on defense.
The Huskies have performed well in the free throw area. Versus Texas A&M, UConn went to the free throw line 27 times, hitting 21 (77.8%). In their first game versus Chattanooga, they hit 23 of 39 (59.0%). On the other hand, the Huskies sent their opponents to the line just 19 times—Chattanooga eight times and Texas A&M 11. That type of disciplined play, where Connecticut outscores their opponents 44 to 19 on frees, will equal victory.
Connecticut next plays Purdue. In their first two games, the Boilermakers have hit over 75% of their frees. In their second game against Washington they sent their opponents to the line 19 times. They won’t want to do that with the Huskies.
The UNC Tar Heels have also been solid at the line. Verus Radford, they were 20 of 24 (83.3%) and against LSU, the Heels went 14 for 18 (77.8%). The club is shooting a healthy 80.9%. One the other side, UNC was extremely disciplined, sending their opponents to the foul line just 20 times. LSU visited the stripe a total of six times. They outscored opponents 34- 15.
The Tar Heels next meet Gonzaga, which is a club that has been extremely proficient at the foul line and been able to play disciplined ball at the other end of the court. The Zags have hit frees 40 of 50 times for a success rate of 80.0%. Opponents have put up just 17 points from the charity stripe, sinking in a mere 53.1%.
The Louisville Cardinals have been deficient from the line. Against Morehead State, Louisville went to the line just 11 times and hit only six attempts for a success rate of 54.5%. Versus Sienna, the Cardinals were worse from the line, hitting six of 13 for 46.2%. Shooting 50% from the line is simply scary for any club.
Although the Cardinals press teams a lot on defense, they don’t foul much and that’s certainly in their favor as they go deeper into the tournament. In the first two games, they sent opponents to the free throw spot just 24 times. That’s certainly helpful for the Cards in their quest for the national title.
The Panthers of Pittsburgh have struggled a bit from the foul line. Against Oklahoma State, they went 17 of 26, hitting 65.4%. They performed better against East Tennessee State, making 17 of 23 (73.9%). The Panthers sent East Tennessee to the line 24 and Oklahoma State 12 times. East Tennessee hit just 50%, but Oklahoma State made 100%.
Pittsburgh’s next opponent is Xavier. Xavier put their first two opponents, Portland State and Wisconsin, on the line a total of just 23 times. Wisconsin threw 17 frees and Portland State 16. That’s solid play on Xavier’s part. But on the other side, the Musketeers hit just 61.1% versus Portland and knocked down 69.2% against the Badgers. Those stats put them behind the Panthers on free throw percentage.
As teams go deeper into the post-season, free throws become more important. Why? Because clubs tend to be more evenly matched, making disciplined defense and the ability to sink frees essential elements for victory.
The advantage in this area goes to Connecticut and UNC, while Pittsburgh and Louisville are less adept in the area. Louisville definitely has the most to worry about in the area of putting frees through the hoop. UNC plays both ends of the court extremely well when it comes to free throws.
Although all four teams are fairly solid in not committing fouls, the Cards are especially sound in this area. That’s helpful since they’ve been dismal at making foul shots.
Do these teams need to keep it together in turning frees into points and ensuring that opponents don’t have a chance to take too many shots from the line? Let’s put it this way, it sure wouldn’t hurt any of the clubs in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight to excel in both areas.
UNC is best and the Huskies are next in line. Both stand to benefit in this area. Pittsburgh and Louisville, because of how their performances balance off, don’t have an advantage in charity work but they are not at an extreme disadvantage either.
