Golden State Warriors AT Boston Celtics
Mar 4, 2011 at 7:30 PM EST
Opening Line:  Boston -10.5
Current Line:  Boston -9.5
Opening Total: 201.5
Current Total: 204
Opening Moneyline:  Bos -550 / GS +450
Current Moneyline:  Bos -560 / GS +360

Boston’s frontline has went through numerous changes of late, but perhaps the worst change of all was the notice that Glen Davis would be missing some time with a plantar facia issue in his foot.  It will mean that newly acquired Troy Murphy will have to learn the offense quicker and be willing and able to take on more minutes.  Murphy didn’t do much in his debut with the Celtics, but that is excuseable.  By the time the NBA playoffs start, he should be finely tuned and serve a good purpose for the Celtics.

The Warriors’ Stephen Curry has got things together recently.  Over his past 3 games he is averaging 27.3 points per game while shooting 29 of 56 from the floor.  Prior to the last three games he hadn’t seen over 30 minutes since February 13th, but evne with his strong play of late, the Warriors have wlost 4 of their last 5.

Some betting trends:

Golden State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games and the total has gone UNDER in 11 of Golden State’s last 14 games.  Golden State is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State’s last 5 road games.  Golden State is 6-18 SU in their last 24 on the road and the total has gone UNDER In 6 orf Golden State’s last 9 games against Boston.  The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Golden State’s last 10 games on the road against the Celtics and the Warriors are 1-6 SU in their last 7 road games against the Celtics.

Boston is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games and the total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston’s last 5 games.  The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston’s last 5 games at home and the total has gone OVER In 10 of their last 15 at home.  Boston is 21-4 SU in their last 25 home games and the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston’s last 9 games against the Warriors.  Boston is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against the Warriors and the Celtics are 6-1 SU in their last 7 home games against the Warriors.  Boston is 2-8 ATS In their last 10 games against Golden State and the total has gone UNDER In 7 of the last 10 games at home against the Warriors.

Key Matchups:

Stephen Curry vs. Rajon Rondo

A matchup of two of the best young point guards in the game.  Curry never really appeared to look like a true point guard, but he has sure managed to play like one since becoming one in his transition into the NBA.  Curry has averaged 5.8 assists per game to go with his 18.7 points per game.  He also plays good defense, getting 1.7 steals per contest and he can be relied upon to hit free throws in close games (93.1%).  Rondo’s 12.2 assists per game lead the NBA, but he is scoring the lowest he has since his second season in the league (07-08).  His field goal percentage is still outstanding (50.8%), but he is taking nearly 2 shots less per game than last season and is much closer to his attempts in 07-08.  Rondo needs to look to score more, as defenses are going to begin laying off him and attempting to force him to shoot jumpers.  If he can remain aggressive, he will be able to thwart that strategy thoroughly.  Rondo is also a theft on defense, averaging 2.38 a game, only a fraction behind Chris Paul for the lead.

Monta Ellis vs. Ray Allen

The other half of the backcourt matchup is also interesting tonight.  Ellis is 7th in the league in scoring with 24.6 points per game.  He attempts over 20 shots on average and attempts nearly 6 free throws per game as well.  Ray Allen, despite being nearly 36, has not slowed down at all, nor has Rivers let him.  He’s still seeing 36 minutes per night and shooting above 50% from the floor and over 46% from three.  His scoring average is shy of his career average of 20.4, but it is about as high as it has been since he came to Boston.  He’s been in the league now for 16 seasons and he should last another 4 until he is 40.

Tonight’s backcourt matchups will determine the fate of the game.  The best players on Golden State’s team are their guards and the Celtics match up very favorably with them.