St Petersburg Bowl
NC State – UCF
Time: 7 PM CST
TV: ESPN
Spread: UCF -3
Total: 49
Betting odds courtesy of Bovada
UCF is back in the mix after its best season in school history last season. It was thought that losing Blake Bortles at QB and star RB Storm Johnson would cripple the Knights, but UCF stood strong finishing 9-3 this season and will be 3-point favorites according to the NCAA spread of oddsmaker Bovada.
The Knights defeated No. 6 ranked Baylor last season when Bortles threw for 301 yards and three TDs. The star QB declared for the draft and was then taken No. 3 overall by the Jacksonville Jaguars. Storm Johnson later joined Bortles after being selected in the 7th round. UCF has gone 9-1 since losing its first two games of the season. QB Justin Holman had not yet started, but the horrible beginning to the season prompted coach George O’Leary to make a change, and it more than worked out for UCF.
Johnson’s role was filled very nicely by William Stanbeck. Stanbeck racked up 659 yards this season on 177 carries, while leading the team with 10 TDs. Though Stanbeck was a workhorse, he did only average 3.7 yards per carry, and the top-3 rushers for UCF are all under four yards per attempt. QB Justin Holman ranks No. 4 in rushing yards with 162 yards total this season, but he only gets 1.6 yards per attempt.
O’Leary commented on the importance of a bowl game for his players, saying it is a “great reward for the players and program and fan base.”
Holman threw a hail mary pass in the closing seconds of the game against East Carolina to win the AAC championship. It is a play that had to be seen to be appreciated, as Holman and Breshad Perriman somehow connected through a sea of secondary. O’Leary said it was the first time in school history that the Knights have won back-to-back conference championships.
NC State finished the year 7-5 and won three of its final four games, with victories over both Wake Forest on Nov 15 and a win over UNC on Nov 29.
The Wolfpack averaged 121.2 rushing yards in six contests. But things turned around against UNC when RB Shadrach Thompson rushed for 161 yards. UCF has a great run defense though, allowing just 97 yards per game, ranking No. 5 in the nation. The Knights also ranked No. 3 in total defense, allowing only 282 yards per game. Sophomore DB Jacoby Glenn tied for No. 3 in the FBS for interceptions, picking off seven passes this year.
Comparatively, NC State’s defense is just garbage. The Wolfpack allowed 373 yards per game in ACC play. The schools last faced off in 2010 when the Wolfpack won 28-21 on the road.
UCF had a 10.3 point differential this season, and in its last four games the Knights totaled 132 points while surrendering only 44. Prior to that four game winning streak, UCF lost to UConn, accounting for its only loss in conference play. UCF’s pass offense generated 230.7 yards per game, while the Knights got 132.2 yards on the ground.
NCAA lines show the total at 49 for this contest, but that seems precariously high given the strong defense of UCF. The Wolfpack will score; it always does; but UCF’s strength and reason for finishing 9-3 was due to its strong defense.
TRENDS:
NCST: The Under is 5-0 in Wolfpack’s last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in previous game; The Wolfpack are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in previous game; The Wolfpack are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games after allowing less than 275 yards in previous game.
UCF: Knights are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games overall; Knights are 4-0 ATS vs teams with winning records; Under is 4-0 in Knights’ last 4 games vs ACC.
