NBA Playoffs Western Conference Quarterfinals
#1 San Antonio Spurs vs #8 Memphis Grizzlies
Best of Seven Series, Format 2-2-1-1-1
Sunday, April 17-Sunday, May 1, 2011
Series Price: SA -370 / MEM +310 (odds courtesy of bookmaker)
Game #1 Opening Line: SA -6 1/2
Game #1 Current Line: SA -6
Game #1 Opening Total: 196
Game #1 Current Total: 193 1/2
Game #1 Money Line: SA -265 / MEM +225
The Memphis Grizzlies have made the playoffs three times in franchise history and have been swept in all three of those trips for an 0-12 postseason record. However, this team is arguably better and deeper than those teams from the middle of the last decade. They take on the San Antonio Spurs in the first round. Though the Spurs are the number one seed in the West with a 61-21 record, they could be a little vulnerable as forward Manu Ginobli is doubtful for at least the first game of the series. Memphis is 46-36 and is the 8th seed. The Grizzlies had a chance to get the number 6 seed had they won their last two games but Memphis coach Lionel Hollins chose to rest his starters instead.
Memphis and San Antonio played four times this season and were 2-2 versus each other. Each won twice on their own home court. The Spurs won 112-106 December 18 and 95-88 February 27 in San Antonio. The Grizzlies won March 1 109-93, a game in which Tony Parker didn’t play for the Spurs. The Grizzlies also won 111-104 March 27 in Memphis. San Antonio is 8-4 straight up versus Memphis in the last 3 seasons but Memphis is 7-5 ATS in those games. The over is also 7-5 in those match-ups. The Spurs are 45-35 ATS in all games this season. The Grizzlies are 52-29 ATS in all games this season, including 26-11 as an underdog, 26-15 on the road, 12-4 versus division opponents, 28-14 versus teams with winning records, and 31-14 versus teams scoring 99 points or game or more.
Memphis forward Rudy Gay is out for the season with a shoulder injury. He averaged 19.8 points a game. Grizzly guards Xavier Henry (knee) and Jason Williams (back) are both out indefinitely. Power Forward Zach Randolph leads the team in scoring with 20.1 points and rebounds with 12.2 a game. Point guard Mike Conley averages 13.7 points, and leads the team in assists with 6.5 a game. Center Marc Gasol averages 11.7 points a game and leads the team in blocks with 1.7 a game. O.J. Mayo scores 11.3 points a game. Tony Allen leads the team in steals with 1.8 a game. The Grizzlies are outscoring opponents 100-98 on the season. They are 12th in points scored and 13th in points allowed. They are shooting 47.1% from the field and 33.1% from 3-point range. Memphis opponents are shooting 45.7% from the field. The Grizzlies make 75% of their free throws. Memphis averages 41 rebounds a game and has a rebounding margin of +0.8. They are 16th in rebounding. The Grizzlies average 20.6 assists and 14 turnovers a game. They are 21st in assists. They force 16.7 turnovers a game on defense. Memphis averages 9.4 steals and 5.4 blocks a game.
Besides the significant injury to Ginobli, the Spurs have no other injuries. Ginobli is the second leading scorer for the Spurs with 17.4 points a game and leads the team in steals with 1.5 a game. Point guard Tony Parker leads the team in scoring with 17.5 points a game and assists with 6.6 a game. Center Tim Duncan isn’t as dominant as he used to be in his hall of fame career, but he still averages 13.4 points a game and leads the team in rebounds with 8.9 and blocks with 1.9 a game. Guard George Hill averages 11.6 points a game. Forward Richard Jefferson averages 11 points a game. The Spurs are outscoring opponents 103-98. They are 6th in points scored and 14th in points allowed. San Antonio shoots 47.5% from the field and 39.7% from 3-point range. Spurs opponents are shooting 45.6% from the field. The Spurs make 76.7% of their free throws. San Antonio averages 41.9 rebounds a game and has a rebounding margin of +0.7. They are 12th in rebounds per games. The Spurs average 22.4 assists and 13.4 turnovers a game. They are 8th in assists per game. The Spurs force 13.4 turnovers a game on defense. They average 7.3 steals and 4.5 blocks a game.
With the uncertainty surrounding the Spurs and Ginobli, Memphis has a good chance to win their first ever playoff game. They know they can play with the Spurs. San Antonio is still the better team but it won’t be as easy as everyone thinks it is to beat a tough, gritty Grizzlies team. Memphis will hang around and win a game or two.
SERIES PREDICTION: SPURS IN SIX (-370, ON BOOKMAKER)
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