Old Dominion Monarchs AT Butler Bulldogs
Mar 17, 2011 at 12:40 PM EST
Opening Line: Butler -1.5
Current Line:  Old Dominion -2
Opening Total: 122
Current Total: 122
Opening Moneyline: Old Dom -135 / But +115
Current Moneyline: Old Dom -130 / But +110

Always one of the most exciting first round matchup, these equally matched teams, the #8 seed Old Dominion against the #9 seed Butler should provide a close game that is decided in crunch time.  Worth noting is that since betting opened, the line has shifted from Butler being favored by 1.5 points to the then-underdog Old Dominion, and now Old Dominion is favored by 2, as dictated by betting.

Butler closed out the season on fire, winning their conference tournament and consequently they have won their last 9 games with their last loss coming on February 3rd against Youngstown State.  Butler only played one ranked opponent all year, the then ranked #1 Duke Blue Devils, and Butler lost by 12.  At 23-9, Butler has a +8.2 point differential, scoring 72.8 a game while giving up only 64.7.  Old Dominion is at +7.5, scoring only 65.8 a game and giving up a very stingy 58.3 a game.  Old Dominion will seek to slow down the pace, while Butler will look to get out and run.  It should be interesting to see which of these contrasting tempo and styles runs dominant throughout the game.

Old Dominion also won their conference and closed the season out with a 9 game winning streak, just like Butler.  Old Dominion only played 2 ranked teams all year, Missouri and Georgetown, and they lost to both.  Their last loss was on February 5th to George Mason.

Some betting trends:

Butler is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Butler’s last 6 games.

Old Dominion’s overall scoring 65.85
Butler’s Overall Defense 64.66

Old Dominion’s Road Rebounds 39.15
Butler’s Home Rebounds 30.13

Butler’s Overall Scoring 72.81
Old Dominions Overall Defense 58.30

Butler’s Home Scoring 77.19
Old Dominion’s Road Defense 61.23

Butler’s Home Rebounds 35.69
Old Dominion’s Road Rebounds 28.46

The last meeting between these teams was on March 15, 2007 and Butler won that time by 11 in a low scoring 57-46 game.

Old Dominion is led by the duo of Frank Hassell and Kent Bazemore.  The tandem combines to score 27.5 points per game, 41.6% of Old Dominion’s scoring.  6’9″ senior forward Hassell leads the way in both scoring and rebounding, with 15 points per game and 9.6 rebounds per game.  He has 14 double doubles this year and Old Dominion is 14-0 in games in which Hassell records a double double.  Bazemore, a 6’5″ junior swingman averages 12.5 a game while shooting 40.8% from distance (31 of 76).  His game is mainly slashing to the basket and drawing fouls or creating for teammates.  He’s versatile enough though, to take his man outside and either take the jumper or penetrate.

Butler is led by the duo of Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack.  They combine for 31.9 points per game, 43% of Butler’s total offense.  Howard, a 6’7″ senior forward, leads the team in both scoring (16.7 points per game) and rebounding (7.8 rebounds per game).  In his 8 double double games this year, Butler won only 5 of them.  He only scored less than 10 four times, and Butler ironically won all four of those games.  Mack, a 6’3″ junior guard, averages 15.2 points per game and 3.6 assists per game.  In the 14 games in which Mack recored 4 assists or more, Butler went 10-4, so his initating of the offense is key for them in their attack.  They must allow him to create and start pick and rolls with Matt Howard.

This matchup might continue to flip flop until tipoff.  Whether to bet now or whether to wait is dependant upon which way you think the line will shift and if it might be best to get in before it does.