(8) Butler Bulldogs at (4) Wisconsin Badgers
Mar 24, 2011 at 9:57 PM EST
Opening Line: Wisconsin -4
Current Line: Wisconsin -4.5
Opening Total: 129.5
Current Total: 128.5
Opening Moneyline: Wisc -185 / Butler +165
Current Moneyline: Was -215 / Butler +180
It’s nothing new to Butler to be overlooked, but when they win a championship and suffer this much of a seeding regression just because of losing their top player in Gordon Hayward to the NBA, one has to wonder how a team could be that good and suddenly fade to irrelevance so quickly. The fact is: they haven’t. Butler has remained one of the top teams in the tournament and they are doing it with a variety of scorers and versatility in their offense.
Butler coach Brad Stevens attributes it to the team’s unselfish style of basketball. “I could sit up here and flatter them all day,” Stevens said. “I’ll telling you what — why wouldn’t you want to play a way where everybody is completely unselfish?
Wisconsin, like many of the teams in the Big Ten, plays lockdown defense and they hold opponents to an average of 58.8 points per game. Given this, the total actually seems a bit high, but it will depend on if Butler can seize control of the pace or if Wisconsin will be able to keep things to a half court grind ’em out style.
Some betting trends:
Wisconsin is 10-3 SU in their last 13 games and the total has gone OVER In 5 of Wisconsin’s last 6 games.
Matchup Statistics:
Butler Overall Scoring 72.38
Wisconsin Overall Defense 58.52
Butler Away Scoring 68.59
Wisconsin Home Defense 56.57
Butler Road Rebounds 33.35
Wisconsin Home Rebounds Allowed 26.81
Wisconsin Home Scoring 71.48
Butler Road Defense 65.76
Wisconsin Home Rebounds 31.81
Butler Home Rebounds Allowed 32.88
Butler’s duo of Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack are going to receive most of the attention for Butler, and rightfully so. Both are the only players on Butler to play more than 30 minutes a game on average and to average in double figures in pionts with 16.7 for Howard and 15.6 for Mack. Howard, a 6’8″ senior forward, also averages a team high 7.7 rebounds per game. Howard recorded 8 double doubles this year and Butler was 5-3 in those 8 games. Mack, a 6’3″ junior guard, leads the team in assists per game with 3.6 a game and putsu p 15.6 points per game. He shot 35.1% from three this year (74 of 211), but his overall field goal percentage was a bit low at 40.8%. Butler will obviously rely heavily on this duo and if even one of them suffers an ankle sprain or gets in foul trouble, Butler will be in serious trouble.
Wisconsin is led by Jordan Taylor. Taylor, a 6’1″ junior point guard, averages 18 points per game and 4.8 assists per game. He scored in double figures in all but 2 Badgers games. He did struggle last game against Kansas, scoring just 12 points on 2 of 16 shooting from the floor. He played the entire game, too. He had 21 in the opening round against Belmont, but still shot under 50% from the floor at 5 of 13. He’ll have to improve his shot selection if he’s going to succeed at the next level in the NBA. Jon Leuer is also an instrumental part of the Badgers attack and his 6’10” frame is imposing. He scores a team high 18.7 points per game and leads the team in rebounding with 7.3 boards as well. A good three point shooter, and as mentioned a good rebounder, Leuer reminds me a lot of Troy Murphy.
Butler really has a solid team and it’s rare that a #8 seed could be so touted, but all one must remember is that they are the defending runner-up for the tournament and even other top teams like Pittsburgh that have lost their top players to the NBA have fallen out, that doesn’t mean they will necessarily. Matt Howard might step up and show himself to be a prime time player in this game, and if he does, Butler will probably win.
