Villanova Wildcats at South Florida Bulls, USF Sun Dome, Tampa, FL
Thursday, January 6, 2011, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNU
Opening Line: Villanova -7
Current Line: Villanova -7.5
Opening Total: 127
Current Total: 127
Money Line: Villanova -320 / South Florida +260
The seventh-ranked Villanova Wildcats (12-1, 1-0 Big East) visit the South Florida Bulls (6-9, 0-2) riding a seven-game winning streak and hoping not to look too far ahead on the schedule to a very difficult upcoming stretch. The Wildcats (-7.5) opened conference play with an 81-65 victory at Rutgers last Sunday and will try to avoid looking ahead to this weekend’s showdown with unbeaten Cincinnati.
South Florida returns home after playing three straight and five of seven on the road. The Bulls lost all of those games away from home and have just a home win against Auburn since December 1. That is not to say they have not played hard during that stretch, as they covered the spread in losses at Connecticut (66-61 in overtime last Friday) and Cleveland State (69-62 on December 22).
The loss to the Huskies was especially hard to take because South Florida played outstanding defense, limiting them to 37.5 percent shooting and leading 46-37 with 11 minutes remaining in regulation. The Bulls got 21 points and eight rebounds from Augustus Gilchrist and will be playing their first league home game after going 6-3 there last year. The loss to UConn marked the first time in five games they were outrebounded by an opponent.
Villanova has never lost to South Florida in four all-time meetings, going 3-1 against the spread after covering the last three. This could be another low-scoring affair, as the total has gone UNDER three times in four games between the teams. The Wildcats are holding opponents to just 37.3 percent shooting from the field – tops in the Big East – compared to the Bulls at 38.4.
In the last meeting a year ago, Villanova crushed South Florida 74-49 behind 21 points from Scottie Reynolds and 14 from Antonio Pena. Corey Stokes added 11, and he is averaging 22 points in the last three games for the Wildcats after totaling a game-high 23 against the Scarlet Knights, who actually led 37-33 at halftime. Stokes was 0-for-3 shooting in the first half before connecting on 5 of 6 shots in the second as Villanova outscored Rutgers 48-28.
While the Wildcats have won seven in a row, they have had trouble covering the spread. They are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven lined games with the OVER going 3-0-1 in the past four. Meanwhile, South Florida has also seen the OVER go 3-1 in its last four following a string of five consecutive UNDERs.
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