Milwaukee Bucks AT Atlanta Hawks
Jan 11th, 2011 at 7:05 PM EST
Opening Line: Atlanta -6.5
Current Line: Atlanta -7.5
Opening total: 184
Current Total: 184
Opening Moneyline: Atlanta -275 / Milwaukee +235
Current Moneyline: Atlanta -360 / Milwaukee +280
According to Yahoo!, the weather has been rather inclement in Atlanta, despite being in the Southeastern part of the U.S. It has snowed terribly and icy roads have stunted travel. I mention this obviously with the implication that tonight’s game might be postponed, in which case many trends and figures in this preview will be invalidated by the time the game is rescheduled.
Atlanta has got things together in a big way. They’ve won 4 straight, 8 of their last 10, and 11 straight at home. Milwaukee, who has been without star point guard Brandon Jennings, will have their work cut out for them tonight at Philips Arena. Atlanta’s last loss at home was on November 22nd.
Most of Atlanta’s players have been on fire lately. Joe Johnson is averaging 27.5 points per game over the 4 game win streak and Jamal Crawford is averaging 25.4 points over the last 5 games. Milwaukee’s backcourt of Dooling and Salmons is fair defensively, but Dooling lacks scoring punch and if he’s replaced by 5’5″ Earl Boykins, Atlanta may abuse the waterbug point guard.
Some betting trends:
Milwaukee is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games and the total has gone OVER In 4 of their last 5. The total has gone UNDER, however, in 4 of their last 6 on the road and they are 4-10 SU in their last 14 road games. The total has gone OVER in 12 of their last 17 against the Hawks and UNDER in 4 of their last 5 against them. The total has gone OVER in 6 of their last 9 road games against the Hawks. Milwaukee is also 2-9 SU in their last 11 road games against Atlanta.
The Hawks are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games and the total has gone OVER In all 5 of their past 5 games. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 6 at home and they are 5-0 SU in their last 5 home games. The total has gone OVER In 12 of their past 17 games against the Bucks and it has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 against them.
Key matchups:
Andrew Bogut / Ersan Ilyasova / Luc Richard Mbah a Moute vs. Jason Collins / Al Horford / Josh Smith
The frontlines here are a lot more even than you might think. Mbah a Moute is a lock down defender that will give Josh Smith or Al Horford a fair bit of trouble. llyasova is a versatile and prolific scorer and Bogut is an All-Star. The Hawks have Horford who is an all-star in his own right and finally playing his natural position of power forward. It has served him and the Hawks well, as indicated by their win streak, and it has also allowed the 6’10” Josh Smith to play small forward, a position that he has an even bigger advantage at due to his size and athleticism. The frontline matchups here will probably have the biggest impact on the game, despite Atlanta’s high scoring backcourt. Milwaukee is the worst offensive team in the league but if they can control the boards and the paint then they will have a shot at winning and/or covering the spread tonight.
