Southern Methodist Mustangs at Baylor Bears
Sunday, September 2, 2012, 6:30 pm Eastern, TV: FSN
Floyd Casey Stadium – Waco, Texas
Opening Line: Baylor -12
Current Line: Baylor -9
Opening Total: 59
Current Total: 58 1/2
Opening Money Line: Baylor -370 / SMU +320
Current Money Line: Baylor-335 / SMU +285

Former Southwest Conference rivals meet Sunday in  Waco to open the season as the Baylor Bears host the SMU Mustangs. This is the 79th meeting between the schools but the first since 2005. SMU holds a slim 36-35-7 advantage in the series including 18-17-3 in Waco. The Bears have won 9 straight in the series, including 28-23 in 2005. SMU hasn’t beaten Baylor since 1986, shortly before the Mustangs were given the “death penalty” by the NCAA and didn’t play football for two seasons.

SMU is coached by June Jones. The Mustangs finished 8-5 in Conference USA last year.  They started off with a loss at Texas A&M 46-14, before they went on a 5 game winning streak. The streak included a 40-33 win in overtime over Metroplex rival TCU who were ranked #20 in the country at the time. SMU lost 4 of their last 6 games down the stretch but 3 of the losses were to Southern Miss, Tulsa, and Houston, the three best teams in Conference USA. The fourth loss was at home to Navy. The Mustangs beat an uninterested Pitt team 28-6 in the BBVA Compass Bowl. SMU was 5-8 ATS and the total was 4-9 last season.

In December, Jones had accepted the Arizona St coaching position, but the university rescinded the offer when the ASU boosters voiced their displeasure at the hire. Jones returned to SMU for this season.

Baylor is coached by Art Briles. Baylor won a school record tying 10 games last year thanks to the play of Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Robert Griffin III, who threw for almost 4,300 yards, 37 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He was also the second leading rusher for the Bears with 699 yards and 10 touchdowns. Griffin left for the NFL and is now the starting quarterback for the Washington Redskins.

The Baylor season started off with a 50-48 upset of then #14 TCU. The game served as a national coming out party for RG3 as he threw for 359 yards and 5 touchdowns. The Bears would win the next games, but then would lose three of the next four games to Kansas St, Texas A&M and Oklahoma St. Baylor would not lose another game for the rest of the season. The Bears had wins over Oklahoma 45-38 and Texas 48-24 during their 6 game winning streak to end the season. Baylor then beat Washington 67-56 in the Arena, oh sorry, I mean the Alamo Bowl. It was one of the most entertaining bowl games of the season if not ever. The two teams combined for 123 points, almost 1,400 total yards, and 59 first downs. Baylor rushed for 482 yards in the win. Baylor was 8-4 ATS and the total was 10-1-1 last year.

The SMU offense will be led by former Texas quarterback Garrett Gilbert. Gilbert, a junior, took over for Colt McCoy in 2010. He threw for over 2,700 yards with 10 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. Last year he was injured early in the season before transferring. He is eligible to play right away. Running back Zach Line rushed for over 1,200 yards with 17 touchdowns last year. Receiver Darius Johnson had 79 catches, 1,188 yards, and 8 touchdowns.

The SMU defense will be anchored by linebackers Ja’Gared Davis and Taylor Reed. Reed led SMU in tackles with 101, including 9.5 for loss, and 4 sacks. Davis had 83 tackles, including 12 for loss and 5.5 sacks.

It will be up to senior Nick Florence to try and replace RG3, if its even possible. Florence threw for 151 yards and 2 touchdowns in the second half of the Texas Tech game when Griffin was out with a concussion. He played a lot in 2009 when Griffin was out with a torn ACL. The Bears not only have to replace Griffin, but leading rusher Terrance Gannaway and receiver Kendall Wright. Michigan transfer Darryl Stonum caught 49 passes for the Wolverines. He will join with Terrance Williams who caught 11 touchdowns last year to form an explosive receiving corps. Oregon transfer Lache Seastrunk and Jarred Salubi will replace Gannaway.

The defense returns 8 starters, but they were awful in 2011 giving up 37 points and 488 yards per game. With so many new starters on offense, the defense will have to play a lot better.

The Mustangs are 5-15-1 ATS against Big 12 teams, 1-4 on fieldturf, and 1-6 overall. The Bears are 8-0 overall, 4-0 overall, and against Conference USA teams, 4-1 in non-conference games, on fieldturf, and in September.

It will be interesting to see how the new players react for Baylor. Under Briles’ system they will still score a ton of points, maybe not at the incredible pace of the offense last year. The line moved from Baylor -12 to -9, so bettors are uncertain what Baylor will do. I do expect a shootout as both offenses can score in bunches and the defenses aren’t great.

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