San Antonio Spurs AT Indiana Pacers
January 7th, 2011 at 7:05 PM EST
Opening Line:  San Antonio -6
Current Line:   San Antonio -5.5
Opening Total: 200.5
Current Total: 200
Opening Moneyline:  San Antonio -240 / Indiana +200
Current Moneyline:  San Antonio -250 / Indiana +200

Tonight’s matchup brings together a very good San Antonio team (29-6), best in the Western Conference, against a rather mediocre Indiana Pacers team that sits at 7th in the Eastern Conference.  Indiana is 9-8 at home, but the Spurs are very good on the road (10-4) and the line is set a little in San Antonio’s favor with an opening spread of -6.

Duncan has not been pleased with the recent play, and the great record isn’t enough to satisfy him.

“We’re not satisfied with where we are, and honestly, I don’t really care what our record is,” said Duncan, “(With) the kind of defense we’re playing, we’re definitely not satisfied where we are right now.”

The Spurs have lost their last two games, mostly due to very poor defense, something that used to be a hallmark of Duncan’s Spurs.  While Duncan is blocking more shots this year than in years’ past, it is mostly due to the fact that the Spurs are allowing more dribble penetration and the fact that there are more shots going up this year from opposing teams due the faster paced games the Spurs have been playing.  San Antonio is putting up 105.8 points per game this year and is allowing 97.9, good for a +7.9 point differential and Indiana is at -0.7, giving up 97.6 and scoring 96.8 themselves.  The total is an interesting one for tonight, given the opposing styles of play.  If San Antonio can push the pace and keep up one favorable to their style, the total will go over.

Some betting trends:

San Antonio has won 14 of their last 17, but dropped their last two.  They are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 road games and the total has gone OVER In all 5 of their last games.  It has gone OVER in 7 of their last 8 games in Indiana.  San Antonio is 4-1 in their last against the Pacers and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 on the road in Indy.

Indiana’s total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 5 games.  They are 1-4 ATS in those games and are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games.  The total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 at  home and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.  They have lost 5 straight to the Spurs and the total has gone OVER in 13 of their last 17 when playing San Antonio.  The total has also gone OVER in 7 of their last 8 against San Antonio.  They have lost 4 of their last 5 games at home against the Spurs, as well.

Key Matchups:

Tony Parker vs. Darren Collison

Collison, despite playing rather well, has actually been a bit of a disappointment given the way he closed last season in New Orleans, averaging 19 ppg and 9 apg in the absence of Chris Paul.  His teammates may be partly to blame, as other than Granger he doesn’t have any good sources of assists.  He has been impressive the last two games, though, averaging 20 points per game and 6 assists per game.  He’s lightning quick, but so is Tony Parker.  He will probably find himself comfortable in the faster paced game, if San Antonio can force the tempo.  Parker is having himself a better year than last year, averaging 1.9 points per game more and 1.3 more assists per game, and has been teaming up with George Hill in the backcourt quite often when Ginobili is on the bench, giving the Spurs a smaller but still effective lineup.

Richard Jefferson vs. Danny Granger

While this is more about Granger being the Pacers’ superstar, Jefferson is having himself a decent year, as well.  Granger hasn’t been scoring as much as in past years, as his scoring average is down 3.1 points from last year and his field goal percentage is 2.7% lower than his career average.  He’s still getting up a high volume of shots though (17.7 per game), and still putting up 21.1 points per game.  Jefferson is a pretty decent defender, but will find himself outmatched height-wise against the 6’9″ Granger.  Granger isn’t much of a post player though, so this may not make as much of a difference as one might expect.

Tonight’s game is more about the over/under total than the spread, in my opinion.  I’ve placed a bet myself on the “over,” as I think San Antonio forces a higher speed game which will be in their favor.