Portland Trailblazers AT Houston Rockets
Wednesday, Jan 5, 2011 at 8:35 PM EST
Opening Line: Houston -5.5
Current Line: Houston -5
Opening Total: 197
Current Total: 195
Opening Moneyline: Houston -275 / Portland +235
Current Moneyline: Houston -210 / Portland +175
Houston and Portland enter tonight’s game with similar records (Houston is 16-18 and Portland is 18-17) and are both battling for the 8th seed in the Western Conference, to earn the right to get ousted by San Antonio in the first round…Portland disposed of the Rockets at home last matchup but to say they have had their struggles on the road would be a bold understatement as they are 6-14 away from the friendly confines of the Rose Garden in Portland. Moreover, Houston is a pretty solid team at home, having gone 10-5 so far at home.
Portland’s star shooting guard Brandon Roy’s career appears to be all but over. He has missed their last 9 games after doctor’s said he had literally no meniscus in his knees. That’s basically the equivalent of driving a car without any motor oil in the engine. In his absense, Aldridge and Camby have attempted to make up the scoring difference, but despite valiant efforts, the Blazers have continued to struggle.
“We need to stay focused,” coach Nate McMillan told the Trail Blazers’ official website. “You’ve got to make plays down the stretch. When it’s winning time, you have to make those plays.”
Portland hasn’t won in Houston in nearly four years. Aldridge has played well in those games, averaging 22.0, but it hasn’t been enough.
Some betting trends:
Portland has lost 6 of their last 7 on the road and the total has gone UNDER In 7 of their last 9 in Houston. They have lost 13 of the last 19 games to the Rockets and the total has gone UNDER in 17 of their last 25 meetings at the Toyota Center. They have dropped their last 6 games there.
Houston has won 6 of their last 9 games but are 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 games. They have won 9 of their last 10 at home and are 7-2-1 ATS in those games. The total has gone UNDER in 15 of their last 23 hoem games but OVER in 4 of the last 6.
Key matchups:
LaMarcus Aldridge vs Luis Scola
With Roy out, Aldridge has become the focal point of the offense. He had 25 points and 11 rebounds against the Rockets on Sunday in a 15 point Trailblazer victory. Perhaps more impressively, he held Luis Scola in check, allowing the star power forward from Argentina only 10 points, half his season average, though he did hit 5 of his 8 field goal attempts. Despite only scoring 85 points, Houston had 5 players in double figures, but are going to need bigger games from Aldridge and the next-mentioned Kevin Martin to have any shot at winning.
Wesley Matthews vs Kevin Martin
Matthews has been one of the few bright spots in this season for Portland. He may not be Brandon Roy, but he is a prolific scorer and is averaging 15.6 points per game and has had 6 games with 25 or more points. He only managed 14 last game against the Rockets, and scored only 10 in Dallas last game, after having a 30 point outing against the Jazz on December 30th. Kevin Martin is Houston’s leading scorer and is averaging 22.6 points per game, his highest average since his days in Sacramento (08-09 to be specific). Matthews is a pretty good defender, but if Martin can get hot from outside, it will be difficult to prevent him from getting to the basket and to the line, where he averages 8.2 attempts a game, hitting an outstanding 89%.
The two matchups listed above will probably be the two that determine the game. They include the four leading scorers in the game and all four are capable of big games. Whichever tandem goes off for the most will probably lead their team to victory. NBA oddsmakers have understandably set the line in Houston’s favor given Portland’s horrible track record at the Toyota Center.
