Houston Rockets AT Phoenix Suns
Mar 8, 2011 at 9 PM EST
Opening Line:  Phx -5.5
Current Line:  Phx -4
Opening Total:  216.5
Current Total:  218
Opening Moneyline:  Phx -210 / Hou +180
Current Moneyline:  Phx -175 / Hou +155

Phoenix and Houston are both in playoff contention, but as it stands right now, both are on the outside looking in.  Phoenix is 2 games behind Memphis for the 8th spot in the West, and Houston is a game behind Phoenix, 3 games behind Memphis.  It has to be a slight redemption for Nash, who at the beginning of the season said the Suns “Had no realistic chance” at winning an NBA Title.  While that assessment may have been correct, at least they will have a chance to if they can make the playoffs.

Things will be tougher for the Suns though.  They recently found out that Channing Frye’s shoulder injury will cost him 2 to 3 weeks of play and he’s crucial to the Suns’ attack offensively, “He’s the one guy that we really can’t afford to lose,” Suns coach Alvin Gentry said. “He’s been great for us, … Hopefully, it’s going to be something that’s short term.”  One possibility for stretches is that Phoenix utilizes a twin tower lineup of Robin Lopez & Marcin Gortat.  Grant Hill will also see time at power forward, but the main plan is to utlize Hakim Warrick as Frye’s main replacement for the time being.

Some betting trends:

Houston is 7-1 SU in their last 8 games and they are 7-1 SU In their last 8 on the road.  Houston is 0-4 SU in their last 5 games against the Suns and they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against Phoenix.  The total has gone OVER In 5 of Houston’s last 7 games against Phoenix and the total has gone UNDER In 7 of Houston’s last 10 games on the road against the Suns.  Houston is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road against Phoenix and the Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against the Suns.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix’s last 5 games and Phoenix is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games.  Phoenix is 9-4 SU in their last 13 games at home and 2-4 ATS in their last 6 at home.  The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix’s last 6 games at home and the total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix’s last 7 games against the Rockets.  Phoenix is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games against the Rocketrs and they are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home against the Rockets.  The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Phoenix’s last 10 games at home against the Rockets.

Key Matchups:

Kyle Lowry vs. Steve Nash

Lowry recently became “the man” at point for the Rockets.  After taking over for Aaron Brooks following a Brooks’ injury earlier in the year, Lowry assumed a time share at the point guard spot with Brooks.  Eventually, however, it became clear to Rockets’ staff that the team’s offense was more fluid and dynamic with Lowry in as the playmaker.  The result was that the team shipped out Brooks for backup Goran Dragic at the trade deadline, a move that indicated to Brooks that he was going to be the team’s permanent starter moving forward, and that he wouldn’t have to look over his shoulder anymore.  Lowry is now averaging 12.5 points per game, 6.5 assists, and 3.9 rebounds.

Nash will present a huge challenge for Lowry, but Lowry is a good defender and has an uncanny ability to keep opposing point guards in front of him on defense.  Lowry is also good at filling passing lanes and getting steals, but Nash doesn’t force a lot of bad passes (unless “risky” always means “bad”).  Nash has been as good as ever and doesn’t really show any signs of slowing down and will press Lowry to the limits defensively.

Kevin Martin vs. Vince Carter

“Half Man, Half Retired” as he is now known has been less than “amazing” as he has entered his twilight years.  Now dependant upon fade away jumpers and ill advised three point shots, Carter is no longer very effective or consistent offensively.  The same cannot be said of Kevin Martin.  Martin is playing efficient and dynamic basketball and getting to the free throw line a lot, a good sign for any shooting guard who relies on both his outside shooting and his ability to draw fouls both on perimeter defenders or big men at the rim.  Martin’s scoring average is the highest it has been since 07-08 and the same holds true for his field goal percentage.  While Martin looked to be closed to finished as a player in 09-10 when he played only 24 games, he has come back to re-form a nice NBA career.

Tonight’s game does look to be high scoring, as indicated by NBA oddsmakers.  Both teams look to get out and run a lot and the score should be well over 100 for both teams (thus the 218 total).  Defense won’t be at a premium and the team that can get out and run the most efficiently will win tonight’s game.