San Antonio Spurs AT Golden State Warriors
Jan 24, 2011 at 10:30 PM EST
Opening Line: SA -5.5
Current Line: SA -5.5
Opening Total: 210.5
Current Total: 211
Opening Moneyline: SA -215 / GSW +185
Current Moneyline: SA -230 / GSW +190
In recent time, The San Antonio Spurs have absolutely dominated the Golden State Warriors. They’ve won the last 10 and will be looking for their 11th consecutive victory over the perennial lottery team, the Warriors. It’s not that Golden State hasn’t had talented players. In 2008, they beat the #1 seeded Mavericks in the playoffs. They’ve since lost many players from that team (Baron Davis, Matt Barnes, Azubuike) but still have Monta Ellis, who is one of the best shooting guards in the league, and he’s capable of putting up big numbers on any given night.
San Antonio’s change of philosophy into a run n gun team has worked int their advantage. They have the league’s best record, but it doesn’t seem as though many are realistically thinking the championship will be won by the Spurs. The Lakers have just been cruising, not playing particuarly well, but every one knows they will turn it on in the playoffs. Will the Spurs remain dominant or will they let the more brutal teams beat them in the playoffs?
Some betting trends:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio’s past games and they are 8-1 SU in their last 9. San Antonio is 13-5 SU in their last 18 road games. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio’s last 5 games on the road. San Antonio is 5-0 SU in their last 5 against the Warriors. The total has gone OVER In 12 of their last 16 road games against the Warriors and the Sprus are 4-1 SU in their last 5 road games against Golden State.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State’s last 5 games and they are 4-1 SU in those 5 games. They are 7-1 SU in their last 8 home games and the total has gone OVER In all 5 of their past 5 home games. They are 0-5 SU in their last 5 against the Spurs and 0-5 ATS in those games. Golden State is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Spurs. The total has gone OVER In 12 of Golden State’s past 16 games at home against the Spurs and they are 1-4 SU in their last 5 home games against the Spurs.
Key Matchups:
Manu Ginobili vs. Monta Ellis
Before the season in the player prop bets, Bodog had set the line under Monta Ellis’ previous season. I wondered how this could be, considering that he had increased his scoring average every year in the league, and guess what? That’s right, he’s done it again. I advocated taking the over on that line regarding his scoring and if you did, congrats, it’s a lock. Ginobili has been quietly having one of the best years of his ten year NBA career. At almost 34 years of age, Ginobili is averaging the most points her has in a season since 07-08, and the second highest average of his entire career. He’s been doing it by taking more shots, plain and simple. It doesn’t hurt that his per night minute average is the highest of his career so far, either. He’s playing 31+ minutes a game, and is ordinarily in the sixth man role, but he has started this year. He should give Ellis plenty of work on defense, since Ellis doesn’t seem able to translate his overall quickness to lateral quickness and consequently isn’t the defender he should be given his overall athleticism.
Tim Duncan vs. David Lee
Lee has been a bit of a disappointment for the Warriors this year, but not really due to any fault of his. It’s just been that he hasn’t had the offensive usage that he received in New York and his rebounding numbers are down a tad. Duncan is naturally declining as he ages, but he is still effective and though he turns 35 in a few months, he will still be a force into his late 30s just like Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. He’ll be a relic that exists solely because of hard work, skill, and effort.
Tonight’s game should be a high scoring affair and NBA Oddsmakers have set the total line over 210 points a game. Expect for Ginobili and Ellis to have big games.
