2011 Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
Aloha Stadium – Honolulu, Hawaii
Nevada Wolf Pack vs #21 Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
Saturday, December 24, 2011, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Southern Miss -6
Current Line: Southern Miss -9
Opening Total: 60
Current Total: 64
Opening Money Line: Southern Miss -250 / Nevada +210
Current Money Line: Southern Miss -370 / Nevada +290
The 7-5 Nevada Wolf Pack of the WAC take on the #21 11-2 Southern Miss Golden Eagles of Conference USA in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl Saturday night. The fact that the game is in Hawaii on Christmas Eve has a lot to do with the paltry amount of tickets Nevada has sold for the game. As of last Sunday Nevada had sold a literal handful of tickets to the game with 10. Who knows it might even be up to 100 by now.
Nevada is coached by Chris Ault, and has road losses to Oregon 69-20, Texas Tech 35-34, Boise St 30-10, and Utah St 21-17, along with a home loss to Louisiana Tech 24-20. All except for Texas Tech are bowl teams. Nevada has wins over Fresno St 45-38 and Hawaii 42-28. Nevada is 4-7 all time in bowl games. Nevada beat Boston College 20-13 last year in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl in San Francisco.
Southern Miss was coached by Larry Fedora but he left to take over the North Carolina program. Fedora will coach the team in the bowl game. The Golden Eagles hired South Carolina assistant coach Ellis Johnson to take over the program next year. Southern Miss has losses at Marshall 26-20 and UAB 34-31. The Golden Eagles have wins over Louisiana Tech 19-17, Virginia 30-24, Navy 63-35, SMU 27-3, and previously undefeated Houston 49-28 in the Conference USA championship game. The Golden Eagles had an outside shot of being selected for a BCS bowl but failed to meet the criteria. Southern Miss is 9-12 all-time in bowl games. The Golden Eagles lost in the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl in St. Petersburg to Louisville 31-28 last season. Nevada and Southern Miss have played twice in history. The Golden Eagles swept a home and home series in 1997-98.
Nevada is averaging 522.8 yards and 32.9 points a game. The Wolf Pack are 5th in total offense in the country and is 8th in the country in rushing with 251.8 yards a game. Nevada passes for 271 yards a game. Nevada has 23 turnovers and has allowed 15 sacks. The Wolf Pack are 96/194 on third and fourth down conversions, and 44/55 scoring in the red zone with 33 touchdowns. Nevada is allowing 372 yards and 25.2 points a game. Nevada is allowing 145.4 rushing yards, and 226.6 passing yards. They have forced 23 turnovers and 22 sacks. Nevada opponents are 72/187 on third and fourth down conversions, and 28/38 scoring in the red zone with 23 touchdowns. Nevada has 3 defensive touchdowns this season and one special teams touchdown.
Nevada quarterbacks Tyler Lantrip and Cody Fajardo have split the snaps this season. Fajardo is 142/199 passing (71.4% comp0letions) for 1,647 yards, 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, along 119 carries, 680 yards, and 11 touchdowns. He is probable with an ankle injury and missed the last game of the season against Idaho. Lantrip is 105/170 passing (61.8% completions) for 1,496 yards for 10 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, along with 58 carries for 198 yards. Lantrip is probable with a concussion. Third stringer Mason Magleby has thrown 4 touchdown passes in 11 pass attempts. Expect Fajardo to start if healthy, but the other two could see action as well. Running back Lampford Mark has 130 carries, 728 yards and 8 touchdowns. Mike Ball was the leading rusher for the Wolf Pack but was kicked off the team for violating team rules. Stephon Jefferson has 69 carries for 423 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 6 catches for 48 yards. Receiver Rishard Matthews has 91 catches for 1,364 yards and 8 touchdowns. He has over 1,600 all purpose yards and a punt return for a touchdown. Shane Anderson has 40 catches, 526 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is questionable with a concussion. Kickers Allen Hardison (hamstring) and Anthony Martinez (hip) are both questionable and have missed multiple games this season. Kicker Jake Hurst is 21/21 on extra points, and 3/4 on field goals with a long of 24 yards.
Southern Miss averages 471 yards and 37.8 points a game. Southern Miss is #13 in total offense, and #14 in scoring offense. The Golden Eagles average 263.2 passing yards and 207.8 rushing yards a game. Southern Miss has 28 turnovers and has allowed 15 sacks this season. The Eagles are 93/208 on third and fourth down conversions, and 45/55 scoring in the red zone with 30 touchdowns. USM is allowing 345.3 yards and 21.1 points a game. The Golden Eagles allow 232.7 passing yards and 112.6 rushing yards a game. USM has forced 26 turnovers and 24 sacks this season. Eagle opponents are 93/240 on third and fourth down conversions and 34/47 scoring in the red zone with 24 touchdowns. Southern Miss averages 8 penalties a game for 66 yards. The Eagles have 13 defensive/special teams touchdowns including 8 interception returns and 3 punt returns.
Southern Miss quarterback Austin Davis is 268/434 passing (61.8% completions) for 3,331 yard with 28 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, along with 101 carries, 332 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Running back Jamal Woodyard has 107 carries, 683 yards, and 3 touchdowns, along with 17 catches, 159 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Tracy Lampley has 84 carries, 450 yards, and 3 touchdowns along with 43 catches for 549 yards and 3 touchdown. Lampley has over 1,700 all purpose yards and has a punt return for a touchdown. Kendrick Hardy has 72 carries, 426 yards, and 2 touchdowns, plus 10 catches. Hardy has missed the last 8 games and is questionable with a shoulder injury for this game. Desmond Johnson and Jeremy Hester each have 2 touchdown runs. Ryan Balentine has 49 catches, 742 yards, and 8 touchdowns. Kelvin Bolden has 55 catches, 647 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Kicker Danny Hrapmann is 58/59 on extra points and 22/31 on field goals with a long of 49 yards. Linebacker Korey Williams is out for the season.
Southern Miss is 8-4-1 against the spread and the total is 6-7 this season. Nevada is 5-7 ATS and the total is 6-6 this season. The Wolf Pack are 4-0 ATS in non-conference games, 5-1 as an underdog, 8-3 after a straight up win of 20 points or more, 5-2 after a cover, 1-4 in neutral site games and on turf, 1-5 overall, 0-4 after scoring 40 points or more, in bowl games, and after a straight up win. The Golden Eagles are 4-0 ATS against teams with winning records, 5-0 after a straight up win of 20 points or more, 6-1 after a cover, 4-1 after scoring 40 points or more, 8-2-1 overall, 7-2 after a straight up win, 5-2-1 as a favorite, 1-4 on turf, and 0-4 against WAC teams.
On paper, Southern Miss is the more talented team, but the Golden Eagles have had some inexplicable losses to Marshall and UAB. The Hawaii Bowl is always difficult to handicap especially when Hawaii isn’t playing because the teams have to travel so far and play on Christmas Eve. It is difficult for the players to get motivated sometimes playing so far away from their families. I do see a lot of points being scored in this game though, and the over looks like a good play.
