It’s been a while since I’ve ventured into a player prop bet prediction article, but after a streak of going .500, I decided to give it a rest until a night when I saw many favorable ones. I took 9 player peformances out of the heap for tonight and layed down my predictions (and bets of course). I feel confident in issuing this list, as many of them seemed to be no brainers, and I always leave the dicey ones out. So, without futher ado, here’s tonight’s selected player prop bets, bets are taken from Bodog.
Lebron James Total Points over/under 25 points Vs MIL
I’m actually going with UNDER on this one. Why? Although he has scored 31.5 points per game over the last two, he only had 17 last game against Milwaukee. The reason is a man named Mr. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. He’s one of the leagues best defenders at the forward position and has frustrated the best of the best this year.
Dwyane Wade over/under 25.5 points vs MIL
OVER. The reason for Wade having a big game is this: LeBron is going to look to facilitate more since he’ll have a lock down defender on him and someone has to score the points. Salmons won’t exactly shut down Wade and Wade had 25 last game against Milwaukee, but he’s been playing out of his mind lately. The last four games his point totals are 31, 25, 45, and 40. That’s good for a 35.25 per game scoring average.
Manu Ginobili over/under 18 points vs NYK
OVER. Manu has struggled badly lately, but eventually that has to come to a stop, and New York is the perfect team to allow that. Last game against New York on March 10, 2010, Ginobili went for 28 points. The fast paced game is to his advantage because he is one of the fastest players in the league, even at his advanced age, and he’ll get plenty of opportunities to score in transition.
Tony Parker over/under 24.5 Pts+Asts vs NYK
OVER. Last year he barely cleared the over on this with 25 total pts+assists, but he’s having a better year this year with averages of 17.7 ppg and 7.1 apg (24.8 total), so it seems logical for him to have a big game in a fast paced shootout against Raymond Felton and Toney Douglas, neither of whom defend all that well.
DeMar DeRozan over/under 14.5 pts vs CHI
OVER. There are potentially 6 rotation players for the Raptors that are injured and may or may not play tonight. Someone has to pick up the scoring slack. Derozan has scored 16 or more in his past four games, including a 27 point and a 37 point game. With Bargnani ailing and unlikely to play, DeRozan is going to see enough shot attempts to easily score 15 points.
Carlos Boozer over/under 33.5 Pts+Rebs vs TOR
OVER. Boozer had a monster game the last time these two teams (34 points and 12 rebounds) met and with a rookie on him (Ed Davis) he could have an even bigger game. He’ll clean up on the boards since Toronto is one of the worst rebounding teams in the league.
Wesley Matthews over/under 16.5 pts vs DAL
OVER. Last game against Dallas he just barely made this over with 17, but I feel confident he’ll have a big game. He’s nearly been alternating good games with stinkers but still has scored more than 16 in 3 of his last 6 games, including a 30 point game and a 25 point game. It will be to his advantage if Dallas controls the tempo of the game and forces more of a shootout style.
Joe Johnson over/under 19.5 pts vs SAC
UNDER. He only averaging 17.6 points per game this year and last year against Tyreke Evans and the Kings he scored 17, as well. He has scored under 17 in 4 of his last 5 games and in 7 of his last 10.
DeMarcus Cousins over/under 21.5 pts + rebs vs ATL
OVER. Last time I went for an over on Cousins, I got burnt, but Cousins has really got his act together in the last three games and is getting sufficient playing time now (36, 28, and 34 mins in his last three games). Over the last 3 in which he has received the ample playing time he has averaged 21.6 ppg and 10.6 rebounds, making this one of the easier ‘overs’ on this list. Sure he has consistency issues, but when he gets hot he’s difficult to stop.
