Time: Noon EST, Saturday
TV: ESPN U
Spread: MISS -14
Total: 49.5
M/L: MISS -525, KEN +425
Betting Odds from Bookmaker
Things have continued to get worse in Lexington. The Wildcats had the (mis)fortune of hosting then No. 11 Georgia last week, and managed to keep it close, but suffered their sixth straight loss and they head into yet another game this week as 14 point underdogs to Missouri, according to college football oddsmakers..
In the loss to the Bulldogs, the Wildcast allowed Aaron Murray of Georgia to record four TDs, which propelled him to the top of the Bulldogs’ all-time QB TD list. The game was not as close as the score indicates, really. The Bulldogs had over 500 total yards, 427 of which were in the air, and they controlled the clock, too, possessing the ball for four minutes longer than the Wildcats.
UK managed 329 yards, doing most of their damage on the ground as Jonathan George came through with 87 yards on 12 carries. 42 of the yards (4 carries) came on the opening drive of the game, and it was the first first-quarter TD for the Wildcats since November 27, 2010.
Their fourth quarter TD by Raymond Sanders pushed the score to 29-24, but the Wildcats were unable to manage another score and dropped the game, though they did (easily) cover the college football odds spread.
Missouri is 3-4 and 0-4 in the SEC, but they should get their first conference win this week against Kentucky, after dropping games the last two weeks to Vandy (19-15) and No. 1 overall Alabama (42-10). They’ve been doing it on the strength of an average defense, which allows 25.6 points per game (60th in the nation), but could stand to generate some more yardage, both in the air and on the ground.
The Tigers rank near the bottom of the nation in passing yardage (203.7, 90th) and rushing yardage 120.0, 101st), and they have only really had one strong offensive game all season, their 62-10 stomping of Southeastern Louisiana on opening night. In the last four weeks, they have scored more than two TDs only once, in the 21-16 loss to UCF, so generating offense remains a focus for the Tigers.
The primary weapon they employ comes in the form of 5’9″ senior running back Kendial Lawrence, who has rushed for 524 yards on 95 carries this year, whir scoring 5 TDs. He’s a dual threat back, and has 92 receiving yards on the year as well. His best game came in the loss to UCF, when he rush for 104 yards on 19 carries, while also trotting in 33-yards for a score. He struggled badly last week against Alabama, though, and was able to muster only 37 yards against the tough Crimson Tide defense.
KENTUCKY BETTING TRENDS:
Wilidcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 280+ pass yards, 5-16 ATS in their last 21 after allowing 450+ total yards, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after an SU loss. 2-10 ATS in their last 12 on the road, and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 following an ATS win.
MISSOURI BETTING TRENDS:
Tigers are 23-3 ATS in their last 26 after allowing 40+ points previous week, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following an SU loss, 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 after accumulating less than 275 total yards, 3-8 ATS in games following a bye week, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
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