#15 Texas A&M Aggies at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide
Saturday, November 10, 2012, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: CBS
Bryant-Denny Stadium – Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Opening Line: Alabama -14
Current Line: Alabama -13 1/2
Opening Total: 56
Current Total: 57
Opening Money Line: Alabama -500 / TAMU +400
Current Money Line: Alabama -500 / TAMU +400
The #1 Alabama Crimson Tide are coming off an emotional 21-17 win over then #5 LSU in Baton Rouge last Saturday. Alabama quarterback A.J. McCarron led the Crimson Tide on a 72 yard drive in just 49 seconds culminating in a 28 yard screen pass to T.J. Yeldon for the game winning touchdown late in the fourth quarter. The win kept Alabama as #1 in the BCS standings.
It doesn’t get any easier for the Crimson Tide as they host SEC newcomer #15 Texas A&M. The Aggies have the SEC’s best offense, and are playing in Tuscaloosa for the first time ever. This is the fifth meeting between Alabama and Texas A&M, but the first since 1988. Alabama leads the series 3-1. Texas A&M’s only win in the series came in the 1968 Cotton Bowl.
Texas A&M is 7-2 this season and 2-2 in the SEC under first year coach Kevin Sumlin. The only two losses came at home to current top 10 teams Florida 20-17 and LSU 24-19. The Aggies have road wins over SMU 48-3, Ole Miss 30-27, Lousiana Tech 59-57, Auburn 63-21, and last week at Mississippi St 38-13 along with with home wins over South Carolina St 70-14 and Arkansas 58-10. Texas A&M is 5-4 ATS and the total is 3-5 this season. The Aggies were 6.5 point favorites and the total was 61 against MSU.
Texas A&M is averaging 559.6 yards per game on offense, including 308.2 passing yards and 251.3 rushing yards. The Aggies are outscoring teams 45-21 this season. A&M is in the top 20 nationally in all offensive categories, including #5 in total offense and #3 in scoring. The Aggies are -7 in turnovers with 15 on offense. TAMU is averaging 63 penalty yards per game, and has allowed 17 sacks. The Aggies are 81/149 on third and fourth down conversions, and 40/47 scoring in the red zone with 32 touchdowns. Texas A&M is allowing 377.1 yards on defense with 245 passing yards and 132.1 rushing yards. The Aggies have forced 27 sacks this season and 8 turnovers. Aggie opponents are 47/162 on third and fourth down conversions and 21/28 scoring in the red zone with 16 touchdowns. The Aggies have 4 defensive/special teams touchdowns.
Freshman sensation Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel is the leading passer and rusher for the Aggies. He has completed 203 of 305 passes (66.6%) for 2,527 yards with 16 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, along with 138 carries, 922 yards and 15 touchdowns. He could be a dark horse Heisman contender. Running back Ben Malena has 97 carries, 637 yards and 6 touchdowns, along with 14 catches, 97 yards and a touchdown. Christine Michael has 69 carries, 321 yards, and 8 touchdowns, along with 7 catches for 36 yards. Trey Williams has 49 carries, 240 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 9 catches for 148 yards. Receiver Mike Evans has 56 catches, 802 yards, and 2 touchdowns. He is questionable with a hamstring injury. Ryan Swope has 45 catches, 645 yards and 5 touchdowns. Thomas Johnson has 27 catches, 317 yards, and a touchdown. Uzoma Nwachukwu has 17 catches, 237 yards and 4 touchdowns. Kenric McNeal has only 13 catches, but 2 were touchdowns.
Alabama is 9-0 overall and 6-0 in the SEC under Coach Nick Saban. The #1 Crimson Tide are one of just 6 teams that are still undefeated in FBS football. Alabama clinches the SEC West division title with a win against Texas A&M. The Crimson Tide have wins over Michigan 41-14 in Arlington, TX, home wins over Western Kentucky 35-0, Florida Atlantic 40-7, Ole Miss 33-14, and Mississippi St 38-7. Alabama has road wins at Arkansas 52-0, Missouri 42-10, at Tennessee 44-13 and last week against LSU. The Crimson Tide are 5-4 ATS and the total is 4-4-1 this season. Alabama was a 7 point favorite at LSU and the total was 38.5.
Alabama is averaging 425.9 yards per game on offense including 215.7 passing yards and 210.2 rushing yards. The Crimson Tide are #23 in rushing nationally. Alabama is outscoring opponents 38-9 this season. No Alabama opponent has scored more than 17 points in any game, and the Tide has 2 shutouts in 9 games. Alabama has forced 23 turnovers with 8 of their own. The Crimson Tide has 23 sacks and has allowed 18 this season. Alabama is 49/111 on third and fourth down conversions and 36/38 scoring in the red zone with 28 touchdowns. Alabama is allowing 228.9 total yards per game on defense, including 162.6 passing yards and 66.3 rushing yards per game. Alabama is #1 in total and scoring defense nationally, #7 against the pass, and #2 versus the run. LSU racked up 435 yards against teh Crimson Tide becoming only the second team in the last two seasons to gain more than 300 yards against Alabama. Crimson Tide opponents are 46/143 on third and fourth down conversions, and 10/17 scoring in the red zone with 8 touchdowns.
McCarron has completed 136/204 passes (66.7%) for 1,849 yards with 19 touchdowns and no interceptions. He has been sacked 17 times this season. Running back Eddie Lacy has 120 carries, 679 yards, and 8 touchdowns, along with 14 catches for 130 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a leg injury. Yeldon has 104 carries, 725 yards and 7 touchdowns, along with 8 catches for 122 yards and a touchdown. Kenyan Drake has 29 carries for 206 yards, but 5 of them went for touchdowns. Receiver Amari Cooper has 32 catches, 472 yards and 5 touchdowns. Kenny Bell has 12 catches, 309 yards and 3 touchdowns. Kevin Norwood has 20 catches, 323 yards and 2 touchdowns. Christion Jones has 17 catches, 234 yards and 3 touchdowns. He also returns kicks and punts for the Tide and has a 99 yard kickoff return for a touchdown. Five Alabama players are out for the season, including 2 running backs and 2 wide receivers.
Texas A&M is 6-1 ATS after gaining more than 450 yards, 8-3 in November, 7-15 after a straight up win of more than 20 points, 16-37-1 in road games against teams with winning home records, 4-10 after a straight up win, 2-6 after allowing less than 20 points, 3-10-1 in conference games, 2-7 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards, 2-8 after passing for more than 280 yards, and 1-7 against teams with winning records. The Aggies are 1-10 all time straight up against the #1 team in the country.
Alabama is 5-1 ATS after allowing more than 280 passing yards, 6-2 in conference games, 7-3 after failing to cover, 3-7 on grass, 2-5 at home, and 1-5 in November. Alabama hasn’t been shut out in 151 games.
The last two times Texas A&M has faced an elite SEC defense, the Aggies jumped out to double digit leads early but then couldn’t hold them against Florida and LSU. Despite being shredded by LSU, Alabama has a better defense than either one of those teams. I suppose a let down might be possible for the Tide after the win against LSU, but I don’t think Saban will let that happen. The Aggies will hang around for a while, but Alabama simply has too much for A&M to pull off the upset.
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