#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at #5 LSU Tigers
Saturday, November 3, 2012, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: CBS
Tiger Stadium – Baton Rouge, Lousiana
Opening Line: Alabama -9
Current Line: Alabama -8
Opening Total: 42 1/2
Current Total: 41
Opening Money Line: Alabama -360 / LSU +300
Current Money Line: Alabama -350 / LSU +290
Almost a year to the day after LSU beat Alabama 9-6 in Tuscaloosa the two teams meet again. Last year both were undefeated and ranked one and two in the BCS standings heading into that game. Alabama hasn’t lost since including a 21-0 thrashing in the rematch against LSU in the BCS Championship game. Alabama leads the series 46-25-5 , and has won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Alabama is 8-0 overall and 5-0 in the SEC under Coach Nick Saban. The #1 Crimson Tide are one of just 6 teams that are still undefeated in FBS football. The Crimson Tide have wins over Michigan 41-14 in Arlington, TX, home wins over Western Kentucky 35-0, Florida Atlantic 40-7, Ole Miss 33-14, and last week against previously undefeated Mississippi St 38-7. Alabama has road wins at Arkansas 52-0, Missouri 42-10, at Tennessee 44-13. The Crimson Tide are 5-3 ATS and the total is also 4-3-1 this season. Alabama was a 22 point favorite at Mississippi St and the total was 45.
Alabama is averaging 436.4 yards per game on offense including 222 passing yards and 214.4 rushing yards. The Crimson Tide are number 22 in rushing nationally. Alabama is outscoring opponents 41-8 this season. No Alabama opponent has scored more than 14 points in any game, and the Tide has 2 shutouts in 8 games. Alabama has forced 23 turnovers with 6 of their own. The Crimson Tide has 20 sacks and has allowed 17 this season. Alabama is 48/102 on third and fourth down conversions and 34/35 scoring in the red zone with 26 touchdowns. Alabama is allowing 203.1 total yards per game, including 145.9 passing yards and 57.2 rushing yards per game. Alabama is #1 in total and scoring defense nationally, #2 against the pass, #1 versus the run, and #1 in scoring defense. Crimson Tide opponents are 34/121 on third and fourth down conversions, and 8/15 scoring in the red zone with 6 touchdowns.
Quarterback A.J. McCarron has completed 122/177 passes (68.9%) for 1,684 yards with 18 touchdowns and no interceptions. He has been sacked 16 times this season. Running back Eddie Lacy has 109 carries, 596 yards, and 7 touchdowns, along with 13 catches for 111 yards and a touchdown. T.J. Yeldon has 93 carries, 649 yards and 7 touchdowns, along with 7 catches for 94 yards. Kenyan Drake has 29 carries for 206 yards, but 5 of them went for touchdowns. Receiver Amari Cooper has 32 catches, 472 yards and 5 touchdowns. Kenny Bell has 12 catches, 309 yards and 3 touchdowns. Kevin Norwood has 15 catches, 261 yards and 2 touchdowns. Christion Jones has 13 catches, 194 yards and 3 touchdowns. He also returns kicks and punts for the Tide and has a 99 yard kickoff return for a touchdown. Five Alabama players are out for the season, including 2 running backs and 2 wide receivers.
LSU is 7-1 this season and 3-1 in the SEC under coach Les Miles. The Tigers are coming off a bye. The Tigers are #5 in the BCS standings, the highest rated one loss team in the country. The only loss for LSU came at Florida 14-6 several weeks ago. The Tigers have home wins over North Texas 41-14, Washington 41-3, Idaho 63-14, Towson 38-22 and South Carolina 23-21, along with road wins at Auburn 12-10 and Texas A&M 24-19. LSU is 3-5 ATS and the total is 3-4 this season. The Tigers were 3.5 point favorites in the Texas A&M game and the total was 51.5.
LSU is averaging 385.8 yards per game on offense, including 177.4 passing yards and 208.4 rushing yards. The Tigers are 109thin passing nationally and #25 in rushing out of 124 teams. LSU is outscoring teams 31-15 this season. The Tigers have not allowed more than 22 points in any game. LSU is +9 in turnovers this season with 12 giveaways. They average 64.9 penalty yards per game, and have allowed 18 sacks this season. The Tigers are 46/117 on third and fourth down conversions, and 27/34 scoring in the red zone with 16 touchdowns. LSU has one of the best defenses in the country. The Tigers are allowing 243.4 yards per game, including 148.5 passing yards and 94.9 rushing yards. LSU is #3 in total defense, #3 in passing passing defense, #8 against the run, and #9 in scoring defense. The Tigers have forced 21 turnovers and 23 sacks. Tiger opponents are 40/125 on third and fourth down conversions, and 16/17 scoring in the red zone with 13 touchdowns. The Tigers have 3 defensive/special teams touchdowns this season.
LSU is battling a lot of injuries with 11 players listed as questionable or out due to injury, ineligibility, or suspension, including 4 offensive and 6 defensive. Quarterback Zach Mettenberger has taken every snap for the Tigers though. He is 112/198 passing (56.6%) for 1,419 yards with 7 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He has been sacked 18 times. Running back Kenny Hilliard has 71 carries, 420 yards and 6 touchdowns. Michael Ford has 60 carries, 357 yards and 3 touchdowns. Alfred Blue is out indefinitely with a knee injury. He had rushed for 270 yards with 2 touchdowns. Spencer Ware has 62 carries with 255 yards. Jeremy Hill has 48 carries, 322 yards and 5 touchdowns. Fullback J.C. Copeland has 3 rushing touchdowns. Receiver Odell Beckham has 26 catches, 420 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Jarvis Landry has 23 catches, 216 yards, and a touchdown. Kadron Boone has 15 catches, 232 yards, and 4 touchdowns.
Alabama is 6-0 ATS in road games against teams with winning records at home, 6-1 in SEC games, 13-4 after a straight up win of 20 points or more, 13-5 after allowing 100 rushing yards or less, 7-3 after a cover, and overall, 11-5 after a straight up win, 37-18 in road games, and 1-4 in November. The Crimson Tide is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 trips to Baton Rouge. The road team is 13-3-1 ATS in this series recently and the favorite is 7-3-1.
LSU has won 22 straight games at home, and is 36-1 in Saturday night home games under Miles. The Tigers are 9-2 ATS after rushing for 200 yards or more, 5-2 after a bye week, 11-5 after allowing less than 20 points, 6-13 at home against teams with winning road records, and in November, 1-4 in SEC games, overall, on grass, and after allowing 170 passing yards or less.
Alabama has won every game by 19 points or more. They have been so dominant that South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier said in an interview this week that the Tide would be favored against a few NFL teams. That is an exaggeration of course, but Alabama is clearly the best college team in the nation. This will be their most difficult test. LSU has an elite defense, but struggles to move the ball sometimes. The total on this game is 41, but 20 might be more realistic. I see a similar 14-6 score as when LSU faced another elite defense at Florida last month. Alabama stays #1 with a tough road victory.
Get Saturday’s college football picks. We are red hot as the calendar turns to November and the season begins to wind down.
