Alabama Crimson Tide at Florida Gators, Stephen C. O’Connell Center, Gainesville, FL
Tuesday, March 1, 2011, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNU
Opening Line: Florida -6
Current Line: Florida -6
Opening Total: 123
Current Total: 126
Money Line: Florida -270 / Alabama +230
As March officially arrives, this could be the SEC game of the year. Both these teams are leading their respective divisions in the SEC and will be the top 2 seeds in the tournament. Though Alabama leads the Western Division, they have a 19-9 overall record and 11-3 in the SEC. They are still on the bubble because of their weak non-conference resume. They have no quality non-conference wins and have losses to Seton Hall, Iowa, St. Peter’s, Purdue, Providence, and Oklahoma St. In conference the record is much better but that probably won’t be enough to get them into the tournament. A win tonight at Florida would certainly bolster their cause. Alabama has conference wins over Mississippi St twice, South Carolina, Kentucky, Auburn twice, LSU twice, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Arkansas. The Tide lost at Mississippi Saturday 68-63 to snap a 4 game winning streak. They also have losses to Arkansas and Vanderbilt. Florida lost at Kentucky Saturday, 76-68 to snap a 6 game winning streak for the Gators. Florida is 22-6 overall and 11-3 in conference. They are ranked #14 in both polls. Florida has wins over Florida St, Kent St, Kansas St, Xavier, Rhode Island, Ole Miss, Tennessee twice, Auburn, Arkansas, Georgia twice, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, South Carolina, and LSU. They have additional losses to Ohio St, Central Florida, Jacksonville, South Carolina, and Mississippi St.
Florida has won 15 of the last 18 meetings in the series since 1999, including 8-0 at home. Florida is 2-0 in the last seasons straight up and 1-1 ATS. Alabama is 10-3-1 ATS against conference opponents this season. Florida is 4-13 ATS as a favorite this season.
Alabama guard Kendall Durant is out indefinitely with a foot injury. He has been out since December 11. Alabama is led by forward JaMychal Green. He is averaging 16.1 points to lead the team, 7.4 rebounds to lead the team, 1.7 assists, 1.4 steals, and 2.2 blocks a game to lead the team. Forward Tony Mitchell averages 15.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.8 steals to lead the team, and 1.3 blocks a game. Guard Trevor Releford averages 10.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.4 assists to lead the team, and 1.5 steals a game. Guard Charvez Davis averages 7.9 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 1.2 assists a game. Alabama is outscoring opponents 68-58 on the season, The Tide are shooting 45.2% from the field and 30% from 3-point range. Alabama holds opponents to 37.3% shooting from the field. The Crimson Tide make 71.9% from the free throw line. Alabama grabs 37.2 rebounds a game and has a rebounding margin of +3.8. The Tide averages 12.9 assists and 14.5 turnovers a game. They force 16.1 turnovers a game on defense. The Tide averages 9.6 steals and 5.5 blocks a game.
Florida has no significant injuries right now. The Gators are led by guard Erving Walker. He is averaging 14.6 points to lead the team, 3.1 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 1.1 steals a game to lead the team. He is shooting 37.4% from 3-point range. Guard Kenny Boynton is averaging 13.5 points, 1.6 rebounds, and 2.4 assists a game. Center Vernon Macklin is averaging 11.2 points, 6 rebounds, and leads the team in blocks with 0.8 a game. He struggles from the free throw line converting only 45.3% from the stripe. Chandler Parsons averages 11.1 points, 7.7 rebounds to lead the team, 3.7 assists to lead the team, and 1 steal a game. Florida is outscoring opponents 71-62 on the season. The Gators are shooting 45.7% from the field and 34.4% from 3-point range. Gator opponents are shooting 42.3% from the field. The Gators shoot 66.6% from the free throw line. Florida averages 37.8 rebounds a game and has a rebounding margin of +6.1. They average 13.8 assists and 12.5 turnovers a game. The Gators force 13 turnovers a game on defense. Florida averages 6.1 steals and 3.7 blocks a game.
The winner of this game will clinch at least a share of the SEC regular season title. Alabama is slightly better at defending, but Florida scores more points. Florida has a brutal stretch to end the season. They played at Kentucky last Saturday, have this game at home and end at Vanderbilt Saturday. I think this will be a great game and come down to the wire.
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