This weekend all fans are treated to some of the best scheduled games in recent memory, including a Michigan/Notre Dame showdown. These 2 teams first squared off in 1887, making this one of the oldest rivalries in NCAA football, and one of the most anticipated games this season.
Saturday the Michigan Wolverines and their 13th ranked football team travel to South Bend Indiana to play against the number 2 ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the 34th chapter of their historical rivalry. Since its inception, the Wolverines have an 18-14 straight-up advantage (1 tie), but the Irish have had the best of Michigan lately winning 3 of the last 4 games. The Irish have been particularly good against the point spread in recent games collecting the cash in 6 of the last 7 against the number. This Saturday the bookmakers (BETCRIS) opened Notre Dame as a 7.5 favorite over the Wolverines. A couple other sportsbooks followed with this 7.5 opener and on Sunday night Maddux’s handicapping team bet all the 7.5s we could driving the number down to 6.5/7 early Monday morning.
This should be much more of a tight game than the opening lines indicated. Notre Dame, for all the improvements the program has made under 2nd year coach Charlie Weis, is still vulnerable to a solid running game like Michigan boasts. The Irish gave up a total of 277 yards on the ground in their first two games, and that was against the mediocre backfields of Georgia Tech and Penn State. Last week in a game against Penn State the bookmakers opened the Irish a 13 point favorite and was quickly bet all the way down to 7, which is when we once again made another move taking out all the 7s we could find. In that game the Irish took advantage of 3 Penn State turnovers to beat the Nittany Lions 41-17 despite only out-gaining Penn State 397 yards at 5.5 yards per play to 383 yards at 5.2 yppl. When the Irish go on offense the offensive line has to prove it can protect Brady Quinn much better than it did against the Georgia Tech in the season opener. Running back Darius Walker saved the Irish bacon in that slim 14-10 win with 99 yards rushing and the winning TD.
Michigan’s Mike Hart is one of the very best running backs in the nation. The Wolverines have an opportunity to grind this one out on the ground and keep the Irish offense on the sidelines. Michigan’s offense hasn’t look that impressive so far this year, averaging a modest 5.5 yppl against Vandy and Central Michigan. The only reason that Michigan’s yppl number is down is because they have run the ball 85 times and called just 47 pass plays – because they haven’t needed to throw the ball to win. Michigan is improved offensively this season and they would have averaged 6.3 yppl in those first 2 games if they threw the ball a normal percentage of the time, which they are likely to do in this game
This will be a game of star power as Michigan’s defense is top-shelf in all aspects, from multitalented DE LaMarr Woodley to Thorpe Award candidate Leon Hall on the corner. Brady Quinn would put himself right back to the top of the Heisman Trophy race if he can have a big day and beat the Wolverines.
The Irish, like Duke in College basketball, are the classic public team and are overvalued in nearly every game. They do have a very good chance of beating Michigan, but not by 7 or 7.5 points where the line was originally at. With the current number of 4.5 this game would be a pass for Maddux, but if you wait and see a +6 pop back up, Michigan would be a solid long term winning bet in our eyes. The Game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. Eastern Time on NBC. Click here to bet this game at betwwts and receive a 20% signup bonus.
As for the total we will give you our advice on the total since you took the time to read the write up. Play on the Under 50 in this game. We expect a lot of running and not many big yardage plays in this game and with the new clock rules the under is a solid play. At the time of publish you can find the Under 50 at Cascade at only -105 VIG. For more winning selections check out the college football picks page at Maddux Sports.
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