The Buckeyes opened as 17 point favorites, but the line has been bumped up 18 points. The squares are liking Ohio State at just better than 2:1. The squares aren’t alone. Sharps, like the professionals at Maddux, are siding with the Buckeyes in this match up, too. We recommend following the wiseguys in this game and laying the points with Ohio State.
Although Penn State is 6-3 overall, they’ve struggled against quality teams and haven’t been that good on the road. Against Alabama and Iowa, the Nittany Lions were dominated. They lost each game 24-3, failing to get into the endzone against either team. They got all they wanted from Temple at home. They lost to an underrated Illinois team at home. And last week they were down 21-0 at halftime to Northwestern, though they had an impressive second half and both won the game and covered the spread.
On the road, Penn State hasn’t fared well. They lost at Iowa and Alabama and beaten lowly Minnesota. The game against the Golden Gophers is their lone road cover this season. Now they have to go to Columbus to take on another great defense on the road, which feels like trouble.
To make matters worse, Penn State decided to switch quarterbacks midseason. Freshman Robert Bolden didn’t perform that well against stiff competition, and sophomore Matthew McGloin has excelled against Minnesota, Michigan, and Northwestern. Therefore, McGloin gets the start against the Buckeyes. But McGloin hasn’t faced the likes of Iowa and Alabama, and Ohio State’s defense is just as good as those teams’ Ds. He isn’t prepared to go into a hostile environment against a top notch defense and excel.
Ohio State’s defense has been one of the best in the country. They’re giving up a measly 84 yards a game on the ground and only 63 at home. The pass defense is yielding just 150 yards per game and quarterbacks are completing less than 55% of their passes. In total, the D is giving up only 234 yards per game and fewer than 14 points.
On offense, the Buckeyes have been dominant up front, gaining 212 yards per game on the ground. That doesn’t bode well for the Nittany Lions who are giving up an uncharacteristic 156 yards rushing a game. Additionally, Ohio State has one of the best players in college football in Terrelle Pryor. Pryor will be able to put pressure on a Penn State’s defense, and the Buckeyes should be able to score at will.
Since losing to Wisconsin, Ohio State needs to play impressively if it hopes to make a BCS bowl. Chances are Wisconsin will end up in the Rose Bowl, but the Buckeyes still have a good chance of getting an at large bid for another major bowl. They’re playing with something to prove, and they get to do it at home against a traditional power. But Penn State is down this year, and in their three losses, the Nittany Lions have lost by 21, 21, and 20. While 18 ½ points might seem like a lot, Ohio State shouldn’t have too much trouble covering. Follow the wiseguys and lay the points.
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