The home Huskies opened as a 1 ½ point favorite, but the college football betting line has gone up to 3 points with most sportsbooks. The squares are likely responsible for the line move, playing the Huskies at 70%. But in this case, fading the public favorite is the way to go.
The technical numbers strongly support Temple in this contest. Against the spread over the past 3 years, Temple has been particularly good in this type of situation. They’re 11-4 ats on the road, 10-4 as an underdog, 6-2 in October, and 6-3 against teams with a winning record. On the flip side, Northern Illinois has underperformed in similar situations. They’re 4-7 ats at home, 7-9 as a favorite, 5-4 in October, and a startling 0-7 against teams with a winning record.
Both teams have played impressively so far. Temple won close games against FCS powerhouse Villanova and Central Michigan. They followed that up with a surprising win over UCONN and gave Penn State all they wanted in Happy Valley. Last week they took down Army in a shootout, 42-35. Northern Illinois has lost games to Iowa State and Illinois on the road, and beaten North Dakota at home and Minnesota and Akron on the road. Each team can claim a big win against a BCS conference opponent.
The two teams are quite similar. They both have powerful ground games, and quarterbacks that can be a little shaky with their accuracy. But having said that, both quarterbacks are dual threat types, which means they can pressure a D with their wheels. The defenses have given up yards, but found ways to win. To emphasize how similar these two teams are, Temple’s defense is giving up 368 total yards per game, while Northern Illinois’ D has yielded 371 total yards per game.
The main reason to like Temple in this contest (other than the situational numbers) is their running game. Bernard Pierce is one of college football’s top backs, but a high ankle sprain against Penn State kept him out of last week’s game at Army. Pierce’s status is uncertain for this Saturday, though hopefully he’ll be able to go. But even if he can’t, sophomore running back Matt Brown has proven that he’s more than capable of filling in for the injured Pierce. Against Army last week, Brown became the first player in Temple history to rush for more than 200 yards and score 4 touchdowns. After Pierce went down in the Penn State game, Brown had a respectable 48 yards on 12 carries. The Owl offensive line is talented and experienced; they have 4 starters back, and 2 are 1st team all-MAC performers.
The Huskies also have a talented back. Chad Spann leads the MAC in rushing yards and touchdowns. Northern Illinois’ o-line has 3 starters back from last season, and several more with extensive playing time. However, they did have to replace 2 all-MAC performers.
This promises to be an exciting, hard hitting match-up between the MAC’s top 2 teams. Both offenses should find success on the ground. But with Temple’s offensive line and Brown filling in nicely for Pierce, the Owls should be able to squeak out a win. Don’t forget the technical numbers that are decidedly in favor of Temple. The numbers don’t lie – fade the public favorite and back the underdog Owls.
Maddux Sports is having an unbelievable year in college football, currently playing at a 70% clip. They’ve isolated a number of quality plays for Saturday including our college football big ten game of the year, so don’t forget to cash in with the professionals at Maddux and signup with our saturday college football picks package.
