Houston Rockets AT Denver Nuggets
Monday, January 3rd, 2011 at 9:05 PM EST
Opening Line: Denver -6.5
Current Line: Denver -7
Opening Total: 218
Current Total: 218
Opening Moneyline: Denver -300 / Houston +250
Current Moneyline: Denver -330 / Houston +265
Denver is riding a three game winning streak, having won their last three in decisive fashion against Sacramento, Minnesota and Portland. Only one of those three was closer than 10 points, a 6 point victory to Minnesota. Houston lost last time out to Portland, in Portland, by 15. LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum hurt Houston badly, combining for 46 points, while no Rocket player scored more than 15. They gave up 100 points and will have to play better defense, though tonight will not be much about defense, both teams give up and score a lot of points.
Houston scores 105.3 and gives up 104.3 and Denver scores 106.5 and gives up 103.9, so it is easy to see why NBA oddsmakers set the total so high at 218. While there are a few good individual defenders on both teams, their team defenses are weak and there isn’t a lot of emphasis put on it.
Some betting trends:
Houston is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games and have won 6 of their past 8 games. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of their past 6 road games and they have won only 4 of their past 12 on the road. They are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games against Denver. The total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 6 road games in Denver.
Denver is 8-14-1 ATS in their last 23 games and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of their past 6. They have won 13 of their last 15 at the Pepsi Center.
Some key matchups:
Aaron Brooks & Kyle Lowry vs. Chauncey Billups & Ty Lawson
I’ve listed both the backup and starter for both teams for a reason – they are currently in relative time shares, splitting the minutes. Brooks and Lowry are similar players, but Lowry looks to create for others a bit more than the shoot first Brooks. Their similarity is that they are both small, which may create problems for Houston since Billups is one of the bigger and stronger point guards in the league. They won’t have that problem when Lawson takes over the reigns, as he is a waterbug just like them, but containing Billups could prove to be a problem for Houston. Though Billups is no longer that fast at this point in this career (he never really was that fast to begin with for that matter), he has the guile to be able to control Brooks & Lowry enough to keep them from demolishing the Denver perimeter defense.
Kevin Martin vs. Aaron Affalo
Kevin Martin is having his best season in quite a while. He’s averaging 23.0 points per game, his highest since 08-09 when he averaged 24.6 over 51 games for Sacramento. He’s scored 20 or more in 8 of his last 9 games and scored 21 last game against Denver, also contributing 4 points and 4 assists. Afflalo is one of the few good defenders in this game and will have a decent shot at containing Martin. Afflalo isn’t a bad scorer either (12.4 points per game in 35 minutes a night), so he will make Martin have to at least pay a modicum of attention to him on the offensive end, especially on the three point line, where he shoots 42%.
This is an interesting NBA pick. NBA oddsmakers have set the line closer than I would have thought it would be, given Denver’s dominance at home. It should be interesting to see what happens with the over/under, as even though it is very high at 218 (opening line), it is not unreasonable since both teams are capable of putting up big numbers.
