Kansas City Royals (37-54) AT Minnesota Twins (41-48)
July 14, 2011 at 8:10 PM EST
Opening Line: MIN -150, KC +130
Current Line: MIN -144, KC +125
Opening Total: 8
Current Total: 8
SP: KC- Bruce Chen, MIN- Francisco Liriano
The Twins are finally playing like the team people anticipated they would be, and certainly like the team I personally envisioned they would be in my season preview of the Twins, though I did express doubts, as to their legitimacy as a contender, commenting, “The Twins might end up being a case of a team that is very good but never quite good enough.”
As of June 1st, the Twins were 17-37 and 6-15 at home, but since have recovered to go 24-11 since that time span. Even with Joe Mauer missing 57 games and Jim Thome having been on the DL twice, the Twins are in decent position to at least catch a wild card berth this season, if not continue to romp their way back into AL Central contention. They are currently 6.5 games behind the unlikely division leading Tigers, who are 6 games above .500.
Even with the team rolling, the Twins are still ailing health-wise. Denard Span is missing time with a concussion and Justin Morneau is out with a wrist injury and is also recovering from a neck surgery, rendering him on the sidelines until mid-August.
Interestingly enough, the Twins resurgence began against the same team they are facing tonight. Their victory June 2nd against the Royals was the beginning of the aforementioned 24-11 stretch.
Francisco Liriano has been less than impressive though. The veteran lefty is 5-7 with a 5.06 ERA and recently misssed time himself due to left shoulder pain. In the second half of seasons, Liriano is 18-12 with a 3.85 ERA, however, raising the question as to whether he may significantly improve as the Twins close in on a stretch run. His last outing was bad, as well, as he gave up 7 runs in 5 innings in the loss to the Royals on April 13th.
Kansas City’s fortunes have run quite opposite to the Twins. The Royals started the season out hhot, winning 10 of their first 14 games, but now, at 37-54 they look as though they are going to have another 90 loss season, if not close to 100. Despite the struggles, Royals manager Ned Yost sees some reason for hope:
“You look at our club and look where we are in terms of our defense as a whole … our bullpen, our starting pitching and our base running, and we’ve made a lot of progress,” he said.
Bruce Chen takes the mound for the Royals. Chen finished last year 12-7 with a 4.17 ERA and at age 34 he has been in the minor leagues a good bit longer than most MLB pitchers. Much like Liriano, he has been better in the second half of seasons, but his 4.55 ERA predicted by Baseball Prospectus looks to be a bit high given his 3.26 ERA, which is almost a run better than he finished last season. Some players just come on later than others, you might say.
Chen’s two losses represent a staff low and his ERA is the best of the five starters, as well, so the veteran can take pride in knowing he may still have a few more solid seasons left on the shelf.
Some betting trends:
Kansas City is 6-15 SU in their last 21 games and the Royals are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games on the road. The Royals are 1-4 SU in their last 5 against the Minnesota Twins and the total has gone OVER In 11 of KC’s last 14 games on the road against the Twins. The Royals are 1-4 SU In their last 5 games on the road in Minnesota.
The Minnesota Twins are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games and the total has gone OVER In 7 of their last 10 games at home. The Twins are 13-3 SU in their last 16 games at home and they are 4-1 SU in their last 5 against the Royals. The total has gone OVER In 11 of the Twins’ last 14 games at home against the Royals and the Twins are 4-1 SU in their last 5 home games against the Kansas City Royals.
For two pitchers that have both thrown well in the second half of the year, the total is precariously high at 8. However, Liriano did falter in his last outing and could do so again, which would raise the possibility of the total going over. Still, I like the ‘under’ on this one
