Toronto Blue Jays (31-30) AT Kansas City Royals (26-35)
June 8, 2011 at 8:10 PM EST
Opening Line: TOR -120, KC +100
Current Line: TOR -105, KC -114
Opening Total: 9.5
Current Total: 9.5
SP: Tor.- C. Villanueva; KC- D. Duffy
The Blue Jays haven’t beaten the Royals in consecutive games in almost 5 years. Tonight will offer them another chance at it. After winning last night 8-5, the Blue Jays will counter with Carlos Villanueva who is 3.0 with a 2.72 ERA on the year, and is 2-0 with a 4.70 ERA in three starts since he joined the rotation on May 23rd.
He gave up 2 runs in 5 1/3rds innings work in a 8-4 win over the Orioles on Friday. He wants to last longer into games, but he did throw a season high 90 pitches and is getting stronger. This is his first career start against the Royals, but he did have two relief appearances against them, including one with the Brewers in 2007.
Danny Duffy will make his fifth career start for Kansas City today. He’s 0-1 with a 4.43 ERA. Duffy did great last season at the AA level and has a fastball that gets into the mid 90s, along with a solid change up, and a decent to good breaking ball. It’s definitely the stuff of a solid rotation starter but how good Duffy gets is anyone’s guess.
He’s only logged an average of 90 innings each of the last few years, however, so this season will be a big test for him. His PECOTA Projection is for a 6-5 season with 75 IPs and a 4.41 ERA. It seems to be a fair prediction as of right now.
Manager Ned Yost knows Duffy can pitch. “His stuff is really, really good.” but he added, that sometimes Dufffy gets “over-amped.” If you’re going to complain about a player, surely that is one of the least of your worries.
The Royals have another great rookie in Eric Hosmer, who is batting .410 with 9 RBIs over a 9 game hitting streak. Yost attributed it to his versatility: “We keep talking about it; he’s a kid that makes adjustments.”
Some betting trends:
The total has gone OVER In 8 of Toronto’s last 10 games and it has also gone OVER in 6 of their last 8 on the road. The Blue Jays are 8-4 SU in their last 12 on the road and they are 2-4 SU in their last 6 against Kansas City. The Blue Jays are 2-4 SU in their last 6 against the Royals and the total has gone UNDER in 7 of their last 10 against Kansas City. The Blue Jays are 2-5 SU in their last 7 on the road against the Royals.
Kansas City is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games and they are 1-5 SU in their last 6 at home. The total has gone UNDER In 7 of Kansas City’s last 10 games against the Blue Jays and the Royals are 4-2 SU in their last 6 against the Blue Jays. The Royals are 5-2 SU in their last 7 home games against the Blue Jays.
Carlos Villanueva may have the better record, but it could be argued that Duffy has the better “stuff” once he adjusts to pitching at the major league level. The total is set very high at 9.5 and neither pitcher looks to be the type to shut down a team at this point.
