New Orleans Hornets AT Denver Nuggets
January 9th, 2011 at 9:05 PM EST
Opening Line: Denver -5
Current Line: Denver -5
Opening Total: 201
Current Total: 201
Opening Moneyline: Denver -215 / New Orleans +185
Current Moneyline: Denver -225 / New Orleans +185
Denver is playing like a team that knows they are on the verge of being exploded. With Carmelo Anthony all but gone, and Billups probably gone with him, there isn’t much of a sense of committment on the team, nor a drive towards winning basketball games. They just dropped two road games to two of the worst teams in the Western Conference, the Clippers and the Kings, and George Karl has not been pleased with the team’s effort.
“I’m really kind of blown away by our performance,” Karl said. “Since I’ve been in Denver my team has always bounced back after a tough loss. Sometimes I think we need to think about playing harder and play simple basketball.”
New Orleans hasn’t exactly been rolling either. They could have their second three game skid of the year with a loss tonight and they are already 4 games under .500 on the road, and Denver, for all their troubles is still a 15-3 team at the Pepsi Center, where they seemingly always get off to good starts as the other team sucks air in the high altitude atmosphere of Denver, Colorado.
Some betting trends:
The total has gone UNDER in 18 of New Orleans’ last 25 game and UNDER In 11 of their past 14 road games. They are 2-8 SU in their last 10 road games and 5-8-2 ATS in their last 15 road games. They are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games against the Nuggets and the total has gone UNDER In 7 of their last 8 against Denver. The total has also gone OVER in 5 of their last 7 road games in Denver. They are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games in Denver and 2-4 ATS in their last 6 in Denver.
Denver is 8-15-2 ATS in their last 25 games and 4-2 SU in their last 6. They are also 14-2 SU in their last 16 home games and 4-8-2 ATS in their last 14 home games. They are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against the Hornets.
Key Matchups:
Trevor Ariza vs. Carmelo Anthony
Ariza is known as one of the league’s best wing defenders, and he’ll need to be against Carmelo. Anthony’s lack of motivation has caused his scoring average to dip 4 points this year, but even a half spirited Melo is still tough to compete against. With his foot already half way out of the arena, Ariza should be able to take advantage of his lack of focus and shut Anthony down. Ariza won’t do much on offense save banging a corner three here and there and he has an atrocious field goal percentage. So if Anthony leaves him open in the corner, he’ll make the Nuggets pay, but other wise won’t be much of a threat at all on offense.
Chris Paul vs. Chancey Billups
This matchup features two of the best point guards in the game, but like Carmelo, Billups is confused by trade rumors and is questioning the team’s committment to his future in Denver. Chris Paul won’t have any sympathy there and though his season has been his worst in recent years, he is still putting up great stats (#1 in fantasy basketball for those of you who do that), and will continue to put in solid performances even when the rest of his team is struggling. Billups has size and strength advantages against Paul, but Paul makes it up with his effort and is never known to back down from larger point guards.
For all the talk about Denver imploding their team, they are still a tough team at home and NBA oddsmakers have set the spread slightly in their favor. Even if Melo and Billups may be on the way out, Nene and others have a reason to try and make the best of the current situation.
