Cleveland Cavs AT Denver Nuggets
January 15th, 2011 at 9:00 PM EST
Opening Line: Denver -15
Current Line: Denver -17
Opening Total: 211
Current Total: 213
Opening Moneyline: Denver -3000 / Cleveland +1500
Current Moneyline: Denver -4000 / Cleveland +2000
Things continue to go from bad to worse for the 8-31 Cavaliers. Just when it seemed they had hit rock bottom, they received the news they would be without their starting center and best defensive player in Anderson Varejao. They lost by an astounding 55 points to the Lakers, handing the Lakers their largest win margin since the inception of the shot clock, then proceeded to come out two nights later and lose by 22 to the Jazz.
Just because Carmelo Anthony has one foot out of Denver doesn’t mean things will get easier for the Cavs tonight. They’ve beat the Suns and Heat by an average of 31 points in consecutive games, showing they still have some work to do before the blockbuster trade blows the team up as everyone expects.
“We’re in a good place through a tough year,” Nuggets coach George Karl said. “Hopefully, we can continue to play like we’re playing right now. still think there’s a window of what-if we’re all together, what-if we become a really good team? Until that (doesn’t) exist, I’ve got to keep the guys playing every game in that mentality of get better, get smarter and do our jobs – and our job is to win.”
They’ll try to keep that focus on winning tonight and blowout the Cavs as everyone expects.
Some betting trends:
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games and 0-5 SU in their last 5 road games. They are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 against Denver and 2-7 SU in their last 9 against them. They are also 1-4 SU in their last 5 road games against the Nuggets. The Cavs are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 road games in Denver and the total has gone UNDER in 11 of the 14 last road games between the teams.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver’s last 6 games and they are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games. They are also 2-3-1 ATS in their last 6 games. Denver is 16-3 SU in their last 19 home games and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Key Matchups:
J.J. Hickson vs. Nenê
Nenê has been playing like an all-star, but that doesn’t mean he’ll start as one. The crazed Chinese fans have managed to vote Yao Ming in at center, despite the fact he may never play another NBA Game. Nenê won’t let it stop him from dominating youngster J.J. Hickson tonight, whose defense hasn’t yet proved to be adequate against mediocre centers, much less strong and talented ones like Mr. Hilario. Hickson is a good scorer and excellent athlete, but expect Nenê’s experience and skill to give him the upper edge tonight. It’s hard to say there’s a key matchup in a game that NBA oddsmakers have set the line so wide on, but if Cleveland is to have any chance, they will have to have Hickson at least hold Nenê in check.
Alonzo Gee vs. Carmelo Anthony
Alonzo Gee is one of two undrafted rookie starting for the Cavs (the other being shooting guard Manny Harris), and that doesn’t bode well for a player lining up against one of the best scorers in the NBA in Carmelo Anthony. Gee doesn’t do much of anything offensively, and that really isn’t the problem. The question is whether he can hold Carmelo under 30, or 40, at that, and given his inexperience and lack of size (6’6″ 219 against Melo’s 6’8″ 238 pound frame), expect Anthony to abuse Gee in the post and use his superior strength to batter the youngster around the court. Cleveland may try Jamison on Anthony, but Jamison lacks the speed to keep Melo in front of him. Carmelo creates matchup problems for teams with good and expierenced defenders, nevermind the hapless Cavs.
The line is set wide for tonight, and it should be. The Cavs are the worst shooting team in the NBA (42% FG) and don’t play good defense either. Expect the Nuggets to come out and give the fans at the Pepsi Center a reason to cheer loudly for three quarters and evacuate the building as the fourth quarter wraps up with the game in the Nuggets’ hands.
