Tampa Bay Rays (0-6) AT Chicago White Sox (4-2)
April 8, 2011 at 8:10 PM EST
Opening Runline:  CWS -1.5 +130, TAM +1.5 -150
Current Runline:  CWS -1.5 +170, TAM +1.5 -165
Opening Moneyline:  CWS -165 / TAM +145
Current Moneyline:  CWS -140 / TAM +130
Opening Total:  8.5
Current Total:  7.5
SP:  TAM- J. Shields, CWS- J. Danks

Tampa, after being considered one of the favorites in the AL East, are now staring down at an 0-6 record.  The only silver lining to be found in the cloud is that the Boston Red Sox have also started the season 0-6, while perennial doormat Baltimore has somehow propelled themselves to a 5-1 start, giving them a 5 game lead on both of the favorites in the division.

How bad are things for the Rays?  Last year they finished third in the majors in runs scored.  This season, they have scored just 8 runs in 6 games.  That works out to 1.25 runs a game.  A team can’t win many when that is the case.  Not having Evan Longoria could certainly account for some of it, but to lay the full blame on an injury would undermine how bad his replacements have been.

“Of course, we never expected to start this way. We’ve had success and we anticipate success this season,” Rays Manager Joe Maddon said. “What happens in the beginning of the year is more magnified than if it occurs in the middle when you’ve built up a little cache of wins.”

The White Sox, unlike the Rays, have got off to a fast start and at 4-2 they lead the American League in runs scored (45) and are hitting an outstanding .320.  “Right now we’re hitting in the clutch and that’s very important,” said manager Ozzie Guillen. “We’re mixing in one run here and there. …I think every day it’s not the same guy every time. Different guys are doing the damage.”

Juan Pierre has worked out perfectly thus far, hitting .357, while they are receiving significant offensive contributions from Paul Konerko and Alex Rios.  Carlos Quentin was riding a 5 game hitting streak before going 0 for 2 on Thursday.

Tampa’s Shields is 0-1, but it couldn’t have come in any sadder fashion.  He struck out 7, and allowed only 2 runs over 7 1/3 innings, but still received a loss for the game.  He’s been successful in his road games with the White Sox, though, pitching a 2.63 ERA in his last two starts there.  Shields’ PECOTA projections label him 13-10 this season with a 4.02 ERA.  Obviously, the 13-10 is dependant upon Tampa Bay producing the level of runs they did last year, not the production level they have received so far.

Danks, like Shields, lost his first game as well, despite giving up only 3 earned runs and striking out 8.  Danks PECOTA projections for the season render him 11-9 with a 4.01 ERA, a significant increase from his 3.72 last season, and without precidence since he has been under 3.80 for the last three seasons, including 2008 when he had a 3.28 ERA.

Some betting trends:

The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Tampa Bay’s last 19 games and Tampa is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games.  The total has gone UNDER in 6 of their last 7 on the road and they are 4-1 SU in their last 5 road games.  The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa’s last 12 games vs. the White Sox.  Tampa is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games against the White Sox on the road.  The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa’s last 10 games on the road against the Chicago White Sox.

The total has gone OVER in 5 of the White Sox’s last 7 games.  The White Sox are 13-4 SU over their last 17 games and the total has gone OVER in 12 of their last 16 at home.  The White Sox are 6-1 SU in their last 7 at home and the total has gone UNDER in 8 of the last 12 against the Rays.  Chicago is 4-2 SU in their last 6 at home against the Rays while the total has gone UNDER in 8 of the last 10 home games against the Rays.

Tampa is desperate for a win, but will be hardpressed to find one here.  Chicago’s very good at home and their offense is already rolling.  Though Shields has experienced success against the Sox, it is likely he is going to have a tough time and it will most likely result in early bullpen appearances.