#13 Clemson Tigers at #11 Virginia Tech Hokies
Lane Stadium – Blacksburg, Virginia
Saturday, October 1, 2011, 6:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Opening Line: Virginia Tech -7 1/2
Current Line: Virginia Tech -7
Opening Total: 49
Current Total: 51
Opening Money Line: Virginia Tech -275 / Clemson +235
Current Money Line: Virginia Tech -270 / Clemson +230

Clemson is 4-0 to start the season and ranked #13 in the AP poll, after a season opening 4 game homestand that featured wins over Troy 43-19, Wofford 35-27, then #21 Auburn 38-24, and last week against then #11 Florida St 35-30. After two emotional wins over ranked foes, Clemson goes on the road for the first time this season and faces another ranked foe #11 Virginia Tech. The Hokies, coached by Frank Beamer,  are also 4-0 this season with wins over Appalachian St 66-13, at East Carolina 17-10, at home against Arkansas St 26-7, and last week at Marshall 30-10. This is the 31st meeting between Clemson and Virginia Tech. Clemson leads the overall series 17-12-1, but the Hokies have won 5 straight. The two teams haven’t played since 2007, and Tech won 41-23 in that contest at Clemson.

Last week Clemson was up 28-17 at the end of the third against Florida St and withstood a furious 4th quarter rally by the Seminoles to hold on for the 35-30 win and cover the 2.5 point college football betting line. Clemson had 443 total yards including 344 passing yards from quarterback Tajh Boyd. Boyd threw 3 touchdown passes ran for another. Receiver Sammy Watkins had 7 catches, 141 yards, and two scores for the Tigers. Florida St had 365 rushing yards but just 29 rushing yards. Each team had one turnover but Florida St had 11 penalties for 124 yards.

Clemson is averaging 505.8 yards, including 315.5 passing yards and 190.2 rushing yards. The Tigers are averaging 37.8 points a game. Clemson has 4 turnovers and has allowed 9 sacks this season. Clemson is 36/72 on third and fourth down conversions, and 11/16 scoring in the red zone with 11 touchdowns. The Tigers are allowing 405.5 yards including 175.8 rushing yards and 229.8 passing yards a game. Clemson is allowing 25 points a game. The Tigers have forced six turnovers and have 4 sacks this season. Tiger opponents are 24/63 on third and fourth down conversions, and 10/11 scoring in the red zone with 5 touchdowns.

Boyd is 90/136 passing for 1.255 yards with 13 touchdowns and an interception, along with 43 carries, for 55 yards and 2 touchdowns. Running back Andre Ellington has 77 carries, 371 yards, and 3 touchdowns, along with 8 catches for 27 yards. Mike Bellamy and D.J. Howard also get significant carries and each has a touchdown run. Howard is listed as probable with a hamstring injury. Watkins has 28 catches, 433 yards, and 6 touchdowns, along with 15 carries for 92 yards. DeAndre Hopkins has 21 catches, 269 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Hopkins is also listed as probable with a hamstring injury. Dwayne Allen had 14 catches, 216 yards, and 3 scores. Kicker Chandler Catanzaro is 17/18 on extra points and 4/6 on field goals with a long of 46 yards.

Virginia tech has had three underwhelming performances (at least on the betting line) in a row against mediocre foes. The Hokies won at Marshall last week 30-10 but a blocked PAT in the first half prevented the Hokies from covering the 20.5 point spread. Virginia Tech had 444 total yards including 215 rushing yards in the win. David Wilson had 132 rushing yards and a touchdown in the game for the Hokies, and Josh Oglesby added 2 rushing touchdowns for Virginia Tech. Marshall had 251 total yards including just 6 rushing yards and 12 first downs. Both teams had 2 turnovers in the game.

The Hokies are averaging 430.2 yards a game including 211.8 rushing yards a game. Virginia Tech is scoring 34.8 points a game. The Hokies have allowed 3 sacks and have 6 turnovers. Tech is 29/63 on third and fourth down conversions, and 18/24 scoring in the red zone with 14 touchdowns. Virginia Tech is holding opponents to 231.2 total yards, including just 43 rushing yards a game. The Hokies are only allowing 10 points a game. All 3 are ranked in the top 10 nationally. Virginia Tech has forced 9 turnovers and 14 sacks this year. Hokie opponents are 17/64 on third and fourth down conversions, and 3/6 scoring in the red zone with 3 touchdowns.

Virginia Tech quarterback Logan Thomas is 60/105 passing with 761 yards, 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions along with 27 carries, 122 yards, and a touchdown. Wilson has 87 carries, 516 yards, and 5 touchdowns, along with 5 catches for 22 yards. Oglesby has 36 carries, 174 yards, and 5 scores, and one catch for 8 yards. Receiver Danny Cole has 18 catches, 285 yards, and a touchdown. Marcus Davis has 9 catches, 185 yards, and 2 touchdowns. D.J. Coles had 14 catches, 156 yards, and a score. Jarrett Boykin has 10 catches for 93 yards, and a touchdown. Boykin is questionable with a hamstring injury, and receiver Dyrell Roberts is doubtful with an arm injury. Robert only has 3 catches this season. Kicker Cody Journell is 17/18 on extra points and 4/7 on field goals with a long of 41 yards.

Virginia Tech is 1-3 against the spread this season and 3 of the 4 games have gone under the total. Clemson is 3-1 ATS and all four games have gone over the total this season. Virginia Tech is 40-15 ATS versus conference opponents in the last 55, 4-0 ATS in the last 4 as a favorite of between 3.5 and 10 points and in their last 4 October games, 7-2 in their last 9 home games, 11-4 ATS in the last 15 as a favorite, 1-4 ATS in the last 5 overall, and 0-4 following a straight up win in the last 4. Clemson is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 as an underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points, including 4-0 on the road, 5-2 in their last 7 conference games, and 19-8 in the last 27 as an underdog.

This is a battle of explosive offense versus dominant defense. Usually, good defense trumps good offense, but Clemson is battle tested, and Virginia Tech hasn’t really played anyone. I like Clemson in this game to not only cover but to win straight up, if they have enough in the tank after emotional victories over Auburn and Florida St. Blacksburg is a tough place to play, but I think Clemson has what it takes to pull off the upset.

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