Atlanta Falcons at St. Louis Rams, Edward James Dome, St. Louis, MO
Sunday, November 21, 2010, 4:05 pm EST, TV: FOX
Opening Line: Falcons -3
Current Line: Falcons -3
Opening Total: 42.5
Current Total: 43.5
Money Line: Falcons -170 / Rams +150
The Atlanta Falcons (7-2) lead the NFC and are tied for the best record in the NFL overall, but that could change instantly with a road loss to the St. Louis Rams (4-5) on Sunday. The Falcons (-3) are coming off a 26-21 win over Baltimore that pitted two 6-2 teams 10 days ago and gave them the upper hand in the conference. However, five other teams in the NFC sit one game behind at 6-3 and Chicago improved to 7-3 with a 16-0 win at Miami on Thursday night.
Atlanta is 2-2 on the road compared to 5-0 at home and realizes that St. Louis should not be overlooked. The team’s three straight wins have all been decided by a touchdown or less, and the Rams are certainly used to playing close games with four of their five losses decided by four points or less.
St. Louis is 4-1 at home this season both straight-up and against the spread despite the fact that they have been favored only once there. The Rams beat Carolina 20-10 at home in Week 8 as 2.5-point favorites and are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. They are coming off a 23-20 overtime loss at San Francisco last week thanks to the continued solid play of rookie quarterback Sam Bradford, who was the top overall pick in last year’s NFL draft.
Bradford played his fourth straight game without throwing an interception against the 49ers, totaling 251 passing yards and one touchdown. He has thrown six touchdown passes without a pick in the last four games combined after tossing eight interceptions in his first five games.
Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has matured in his third year after being selected third overall as the replacement for Michael Vick. Ryan has thrown more touchdowns than interceptions in seven of the team’s nine games this season, totaling 10 touchdowns and two picks in the last five. He has gotten a lot of help from wide receiver Roddy White, who has emerged as one of the top targets in the league. White has made an NFL-high 70 catches for 934 receiving yards (ranked second) with seven touchdowns.
Defensively, Atlanta ranks eighth overall in points allowed, giving up 19.4 per game. The Falcons rank seventh in run defense – allowing 98.1 yards per game – one spot behind St. Louis (97.8 ypg). With both run defenses ranking in the Top 10, either Ryan or Bradford could be the difference in terms of who wins this game.
The OVER has cashed in four straight games for Atlanta compared to 1-3 in the last four for the Rams. The OVER is also 4-0 in the last four meetings between the teams. The Falcons have won three of the last four meetings (2-2 ATS) after St. Louis won three straight in the series.
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